Ranking the NBA’s Top 10 Point Guards: Next 3 Years- 07/27/2010
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For decades, basic basketball logic stated that the Center position was the most crucial piece of developing a championship contender. No team would ever pass up on a dominant 7-footer in an NBA Draft in favor of a gifted 6-foot guard.
But since the adoption of new NBA rules in 2004 that limited the amount of touching, hand checking, and physical defending that can be performed on perimeter players, penetrating point guards have begun to take over the league. There’s a new-age athlete that’s coveted in the NBA.
No single player can change the fortune on an NBA franchise like a point guard can, and the position now holds a deep crop of franchise players. From Rose to Rondo and Jennings to Evans, there’s a ton of great young guards that will continue to greatly impact the league’s hierarchy over the next several years.
It’s time to unveil my top 10 point guards. My list is based on the highest valued players for the NEXT 3 YEARS. That means I have the option to choose any player this summer to become my point guard for the next 3 seasons, and 3 years only. So keep that in mind. This is not a “current best” point guards list or “next-decade” top guard list. This is a 3-year window to select anyone in the world to play your point position and lead your team to an NBA Title.
Top 10 NBA Point Guards for the Next 3 Years:
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TIER 3 - The International Stars:
10. STEVE NASH - Phoenix Suns (36 years old) --
Nash is the only player in his 30’s on this list. In fact, he’s the only one older than 26. But I’d still take the 36-year-old Nash for the next 3 years over any of the guys that miss the cut. The prized possession of Canada, Nash has the greatest floor vision of any guard of the last decade. He runs a flawless pick-and-roll that forces opponents to make quick decisions. And if you leave him open, Nash is one of the deadliest shooters in the league. His annual line of at least 50% field goal shooting, 40% three-point shooting, and 90% free-throw shooting percentages is unmatched by any player in the league today. In fact, the 50-40-90 club is a place that only 4 players in league HISTORY have ever reached. Only Larry Bird, Reggie Miller, Mark Price, and Steve Nash can claim those shooting percentages for a full season. Nash is a 2-time NBA MVP and 4-time league assist leader. Overall, Nash has been the best point guard of the past 6 or 7 years. He’s obviously starting to regress as an older guy, but he keeps himself in the best shape of any player on the planet. His well-documented diet and exercise routines keep him in tip-top shape to perform at the highest level possible every season. Our 3-year window should be a short enough time period to get solid, reliable seasons from the veteran Nash.
9. RICKY RUBIO - FC Regal Barcelona, EuroLeague [Minnesota Timberwolves own his NBA rights] (19 years old) --
This could be a shocker to some that wouldn’t even think of this overseas youngster in a conversation about NBA guards. And, he’s not going to be playing in the NBA next season, as he will play out his contract in Barcelona and wait for the 2011-12 season to arrive in the Association. As much as fans (especially in Minnesota) are agitated by his delayed arrival to the league, it’s going to end up being a smart move. Rubio is making sure he’s 100% ready to be an impact player when he hits an NBA floor.
And oh, will he be worth the wait. The #5 overall pick of the 2009 NBA Draft, Rubio is a one-of-a-kind distributor that has an uncanny feel for the game. His passing ability would be top-5 in the league if he played next season. As a 19-year-old last year in Spain, Rubio led his FC Barcelona team to the EuroLeague Championship. He started all 22 games and averaged 6.8 points, 4.6 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 90% from the free throw line. He was second in the 24-team league’s regular season in assists, and won the Rising Star Award. While his stats don’t jump out at you, let’s remember that 19-year-old Brandon Jennings averaged 7.5 points and 1.8 assists in his 2008-09 EuroLeague season before coming to the NBA in 2009 and becoming Milwaukee’s franchise player and near-Rookie of the Year. Not only did Rubio have a better statistical season than Jennings did, but he was the starting point guard on the championship team and scored 10 points with 8 assists in the title game. Rubio has tremendous quickness to match his brilliant floor vision. He is certainly the biggest risk on the list, but I’m taking my chances with a potential International superstar rather than settling for a safer route with the likes of Aaron Brooks or Jameer Nelson. Basketball fans will be in for a treat when Rubio finally decides to play for the Timberwolves in the NBA. Or, when the Wolves trade his rights to a team that the Spaniard is more willing to join immediately in 2011. We’ll see how the Rubio story plays out, but I’m predicting tremendous NBA success no matter what happens.
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TIER 2 - The Franchise Players:
8. BRANDON JENNINGS - Milwaukee Bucks (20 years old) --
Of all the great point guards from the rookie class of 2009, the #10 pick Jennings is the only one that led his team to a playoff berth in his first season. Milwaukee’s entire franchise outlook has improved since acquiring Jennings. The 20-year-old spent one year playing overseas in Greece, rather than playing in college. Despite receiving limited playing time in Europe and not putting up any memorable stats, Jennings greatly improved as a player and quickly adjusted to fast-paced, physical professional basketball. In the NBA, Jennings has shown an ability to be a complete game-changer. Last season, he averaged 15.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.4 RPG, and 1.3 SPG as a 20-year-old rookie starter for a playoff team. He’s one of the quickest guards in the league from end to end, and can attack the basket with the best of point guards. His creative passing skills and high basketball IQ make him a perfect fit to run an offense with pace. He turned a stagnant, boring Bucks team into an exciting, up-tempo crowd pleaser. He scored 55 points in his 8th career NBA game. His jump shot is still a major work in progress, as teams tend to significantly back off of him and force jumpers. But he is dedicated to getting better, and possesses enough other skills to impact a game even when he isn’t shooting well. Expect great improvements in the next few years from Jennings, an already explosive young guard who has proven his value as a winner.
7. TYREKE EVANS - Sacramento Kings (20 years old) --
The #4 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Evans had a spectacular first NBA season and went on to become the Rookie of the Year. Evans became just the 4th rookie in league history to average at least 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. The other three? Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, and Magic Johnson. Evans has that kind of talent; he is a tall guard at 6’5” that can get to the basket with extreme ease. He has the size, strength, and length to be a valuable defender, and averaged 1.5 steals per game last year. He lives in the paint, able to find open teammates from his penetration and finish at the rim with consistency. Questions remain about his overall value to a team; his Kings team won just 25 games in 2009 and Evans began to develop a reputation as an over-dribbling, selfish player for a point guard. But can you really blame Evans for commanding the ball, when he was clearly the best player on an awful team? As Evans improves his decision-making and defers more often to better teammates, he will become an even more valuable player. There’s no question that Evans has the talent, it’s just a matter of putting it all together to become the best player to win games for his team. And, he’s not even 21 years old yet.
6. RUSSELL WESTBROOK - Oklahoma City Thunder (21 years old) --
Another incredibly gifted young player, Westbrook has 2 fantastic seasons under his belt as he prepares for a surefire breakout season in 2010-11. Westbrook, who plays the role of Robin to Kevin Durant’s Batman for the OKC Thunder, averaged 16 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in his sophomore year last season. Westbrook is a top-flight athlete that has an incredible ability to finish at the rim. He will dunk on anyone and shows no fear on either end of the floor. Overall he is a very unique player, and one that is a hassle to defend. Like many players on this list, he is not a good deep shooter, but he has a very reliable mid-range game. While he does not play like a traditional point guard, he averaged 8 assists as a 2nd-year player and has much room to improve. With Kevin Durant on his side, he has room to operate. He’s a gem for the Thunder and a certain franchise guard, and still only 21 years old.
5. JOHN WALL - Washington Wizards (19 years old) --
He’s yet to play a game in the NBA, but John Wall is as much of a sure thing as you will ever find for a rookie. I watched two of his Summer League games in their entirety, and you can just tell that the guy is going to be a superstar. He easily won MOP of the Summer League. He’s already in the top 1% of fastest players in the league with a smooth feel for every facet of the game. He has tremendous size for a point (6’4”) and has top-notch floor vision. His jump shot is totally unpolished, but he has good form and will certainly improve his percentages as he gets more comfortable. He’s going to immediately change the Wizards franchise. Wall is often compared to Derrick Rose, and there are many similarities, but he’s still an entirely different player. Wall is a much more polished distributor and playmaker at his age than Rose was, and he is likely to average way more assists than Rose. I think his ceiling might be higher because of his vision and pass-first mentality. He can also finish at the rim with ease and flair. Oh, and he’s 19.
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TIER 1 - The Untouchables:
4. DERON WILLIAMS - Utah Jazz (26 years old) --
Some may be surprised to see Deron Williams this low on the list. He was widely considered the best point guard in the NBA last season, and for good reason. With his tremendous strength and size for the position, as well as his outstanding shooting ability, Williams can beat you from anywhere on the floor. He averaged 18.7 points and 10.5 assists last season while shooting 47%. He shot up to 24 points per game in the playoffs for a 2nd-round team. So why is he 4th on the list? Well, he’s the oldest player on the list after Nash, his lacking athleticism holds back his ceiling a tiny bit, and, well, there’s just too many good players to choose from. He’s as consistent as they come, but rarely explodes for huge games. His career high in 5 seasons is 42 points, and his playoff career high is 34. I just think the other three on this list have a tiny bit more upside. But let’s be clear; Williams could easily be #1 or 2 on this list in other people’s minds. He’s a sure bet to average 20 and 10 for a playoff Jazz team for the next 3 years. He was the best point guard in the NBA last season and has the chance to prove it again going forward. I think he stays in the upper echelon, but starts to be passed by a few players in the next 3 seasons.
3. RAJON RONDO - Boston Celtics (24 years old) --
Rondo was the best player on a Celtics team that came 6 minutes away from winning the 2010 NBA Title. He’s a one-of-a-kind player that dominates a game without needing to shoot very often. We’ve seen centers and other defensive players do that, but it’s very rare for a point guard. He’s a freakish athlete with a high basketball IQ that has total control of the flow of the game. And the thing with Rondo is that he’s not yet even close to his ceiling. Right now, he’s a very poor shooter and definitely not as consistent as a guy like D. Williams. But I’m taking my bets with Rondo going forward. Last year, he averaged 14 points, 10 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game (which led the league). His rebounding averages are not too high, but in the postseason he proved that he can be a monster rebounder. He had 18 rebounds in a win over the Cavaliers, and two games of 10+ rebounds in the NBA Finals. He can do anything and everything to help his team win, except hit a consistent jump shot. If that improves, the sky is the limit.
2. DERRICK ROSE - Chicago Bulls (21 years old) --
Derrick Rose is another unique point guard that has unlimited upside. He’s so unbelievably fast and athletic that it’s just unfair. He will throw down highlight dunks on occasion, but makes his living on the perimeter. He can blow by any defender with his tremendous quickness and gets to the rim with ease, but has also developed an incredibly reliable mid-range jumper. He shot 49% last season, which is remarkable for a point guard that averaged 21 points per game. His regular season numbers were 21 PPG, 6 APG, and 4 RPG. These shot up to 27, 7, and 4 during the postseason. Rose is more of a scorer than distributor, so his assist tallies might never be as high as some of the others on this list. He’s not a good three-point shooter, and he’s also less of an impact defender than most others here. Any improvements on those three facets of his game will make him nearly unstoppable. For now, the Bulls will take an explosive 21-year-old superstar guard entering his 3rd season that is their most reliable scorer and passer.
1. CHRIS PAUL - New Orleans Hornets (25 years old) --
I debated for a long time about players 2-6 on this list, but Chris Paul was my no-brainer for the top spot. CP3 is the best point guard on the planet in the prime of his career. Obviously, a major concern here is the arthroscopic knee surgery that Paul underwent last season. He missed 8 weeks and appeared very hesitant when he returned in April. But it was obvious that the Hornets, out of playoff contention, were easing him back and didn’t want to risk further injury. Now, the bigger question is which team Paul will be playing out his 3-year window for, after he recently expressed his desire to be playing for a contending team right now. Whether New Orleans fits that description is yet to be determined. For now, he’s a Hornet, and their obvious franchise player. Two years ago, Paul was MVP runner-up to Kobe Bryant, as he led a talent-lacking Hornets team to a 7-game series against the Spurs in the 2nd round of the playoffs. He led the NBA in assists and steals in both 2007-08 and 2008-09. Last year, he was on pace to make it 3 years in a row before he got hurt. He has career averages of 20 points, 10 assists, and 2.5 steals per game, and he’s still just 25 years old. He is a good three-point shooter and great free-throw shooter. He’s obviously a great distributor and makes all of his teammates better. Overall, Paul is the obvious choice as the best point guard for the next 3 seasons. Expect a bit of rust to begin next year as he continues his recovery from his knee injury, and swirling trade rumors certainly will not help his comfort level. But Chris Paul is the leader of the pack of the point guard position, and has a bright future ahead as a true NBA superstar.
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Just Missed The Cut:
TONY PARKER - San Antonio Spurs (28 years old)
AARON BROOKS - Houston Rockets (25 years old)
DARREN COLLISON - New Orleans Hornets (22 years old)
[I omitted Warriors G Stephen Curry, as he is more of a SG than PG]
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So there you have my list. This was one of the hardest rankings I’ve ever had to make, due to the great competition of the position. Every point guard on this list has a different style, and it’s tough to compare the values of certain players on different teams. Also, predicting a 3-year window is much harder than just listing the best players in the game today.
I’d love to hear your list, or what guys you would have added to the top 10 that I omitted.