2010 NBA Draft Guide: Stars, Sleepers, Overrated/Underrated Players - 06/24/2010
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Written by Evan Jacoby
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June 24, 2010
The 2010 NBA Draft gets underway on Thursday night, June 24th, at 7:00 PM ET. For a while, the buzz about this year’s draft was lacking in compared to years past. Of course, the Super Free Agent Class of 2010 has stolen all off-season headlines, and for good reason. Everyone wants to know where LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Amar’e, and others are headed next season. In fact, many of the draft subplots involve impending free agency, such as which teams will pull off trades to help them gain more cap room to sign players. However, late NBA Draft buzz is coming on strong. This year’s draft class has a lot of intriguing prospects that will make a definite impact in the league as early as next season. Only a couple of teams will be making a splash in free agency, and the others know how crucial the draft is to improving their team. The 2009 draft class had some phenomenal rookies last season, including some new franchise players around the league (Evans, Curry, Jennings, possibly Griffin, Rubio?). We’ve seen how quickly a team can turn around with a good draft. Just look at Oklahoma City, who has built a roster of young stars solely from their past 3 draft classes. So let’s get right into it. Here’s a look at some of the names to keep tabs on at the 2010 NBA Draft. Stars, sleepers, question marks; we have them all listed here: ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. SUPERSTAR TALENTS - John Wall, PG, Kentucky - Wall is the pure superstar of this class. There’s absolutely nothing to criticize about him. He’s a 6’4” point guard with blazing speed, world-class athleticism, tremendous vision and passing skills, great finishing ability, true leadership qualities, and great work ethic. Like many similar guards, his jump shot needs more consistency. But he absolutely has the ability to be a 20 point+ per game scorer. Similar skill set to Derrick Rose, but different type of point guard, as his top skill is his creative court vision. He will completely turn around the Wizards franchise from day 1. Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse - Wes Johnson is another world-class athlete who will be in the upper echelon of leapers in the league. Johnson’s great length and skill set make him a perfect, prototypical 3. He has a good mid-range game and will be a strong rebounder. Terrific skills on the wing, and he averaged nearly 2 steals and 2 blocks per game last season at Cuse. He will fill up the stat sheet at the next level. Not sure I’ve ever heard anyone make this comparison before, but he reminds me of Shawn Marion with a jump shot. If he develops the consistency that Marion had on both ends of the floor, he can be a star. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky - You will see Cousins on several of these lists, because he’s such an intriguing prospect. He is by far the most interesting prospect in this draft to me. The scoop on Cousins is that his demeanor, attitude, and discipline are all red flags that skew his immense strengths as a 7-footer with tremendous skills, athleticism, and footwork. But in terms of talent, Cousins is the full package, offensively. He has a knack for scoring easily and effectively in the paint that is Dwight Howard-esque. He converts everything near the rim, like Andrew Bynum does. His offensive game is a mixture of the two, and he takes up so much space inside with his wide body and huge wingspan. He is not a leaper, and won’t be a big-time defensive stopper, but anyone with surefire 20-point, 10-rebound per night potential must be considered as a top pick. He won’t back down from anyone at the next level. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SURE BETS - Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State - Evan Turner is the perfect safe pick of the draft. He doesn’t “wow” you with athleticism or flashiness, but he does everything to help a team win. He fills up the stat sheet and plays with tremendous heart every minute that he’s on the floor. His size and versatility, as a 6’6” guy with point guard handles and 2-guard scoring ability, makes him a top pick. He may not ever be the best player on an NBA team, but he’s a safe bet to be a productive starter from day 1, and aid in many facets of the game. Greg Monroe, F/C, Georgetown - Scouts have been in love with Monroe’s game since he was in high school. The best passing big man we’ve seen in years, Monroe is a versatile asset as a front court player. His tremendous size (6’11”) and wing span make him a productive shot blocker and defender, and allows him to score inside for easy baskets. He has a smooth offensive game that should be able to mesh with any style. He doesn’t have that true killer instinct, great athletic ability, or scorer’s mentality, and he’s not someone you expect to be an All-Star. But as a skilled big man with upper-class passing ability, he’s a guy you can count on to make an impact for your team. Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky - Patterson has passed the draft combines, workouts, and interviews with flying colors. While he has limited ball skills, speed, and explosiveness, Patterson fits the mold as a glue guy that can do everything to help a team win. He is a big body down low that bangs for rebounds, boxes out with great form, and can score with his back to the basket. He also has a reliable mid-range jump shot that he continues to add range to. He is a smart player that works hard and has a high basketball IQ. If you draft Patterson, you’re looking to add a solid 20-25 minutes off the bench of efficiency and versatility at the forward position. James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State - Veteran guard from the Big 12 who averaged 22 points per game in that extremely competitive, top NCAA basketball league. He is not flashy at all, but is just simply productive. Anderson has an NBA body with a solid shooting stroke and scorer’s mentality. He will get buckets at the next level. There are questions about his all-around game, especially in terms of his passing ability and defensive skills. But as an offensive player, his polished game will be an immediate asset. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - QUESTION MARKS - DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky - We’ve already covered some of Cousins. He undoubtedly tops the question marks list. Off the court, Cousins is very laid back in interviews and comes off as a quiet, interesting guy. Some scouts see him as uninterested in getting better and unwilling to work at becoming great. And on the court, he’s a headcase that gets into fights and can lose his composure. These character issues can be major red flags. He also comes in at 16% body fat, shockingly high for a top prospect. His weight alone could be an issue for teams. We’re unsure whether or not all of these things will deter him from becoming a reliable, 20-a-night scorer as a franchise center. Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech - I was very close to putting Favors in the Superstar group, but there’s just too many question marks right now. He very well may become an All-Star forward by year 3 in this league, but the 19-year-old interior force had a hard time using his skills in college. He struggled to get off easy shots, despite being a 6’11” super-athletic forward with great hands. His overall productivity and activity in games is not yet where it needs to be. Will he ever develop these attributes to become a dominant forward? We’re unsure yet. I’ll take my chances, but he’s not the safest pick out there. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest - Similar to Favors, except as more of a lanky forward. Aminu has the size, skills, and athleticism to be an All-Star. He was a dominant rebounder in college. But his motor was visibly lacking in many games. He didn’t seem to impact games on every possession like a super-athletic forward should. He can disappear in games, and has the look of being disinterested when he’s not involved. He needs to use his superior athleticism to be an impact off-ball defender and offensive weapon. We’re not sure what we’ll get from the talented Aminu at the next level. Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina - Ed Davis was once the projected #1 pick of this draft. In limited minutes as a freshman for the National Champion Tar Heels, Davis showed his unreal potential with his high scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking rates off the bench. But as a sophomore, he proves how unpolished he is. He has smooth offensive skills for a 6’10” forward, and has the length to be a major impact defender. But he’s a skinny kid that has gotten backed down in the post and struggled to put together his game. Will he be physical enough at the next level to significantly impact an NBA game? It’s unclear. Willie Warren, SG, Oklahoma - Willie Warren came into his sophomore season at Oklahoma as a potential top-5 pick. He has tremendous ball skills and scoring ability, as a truly gifted 2-guard with flash. But then he had a devastating sophomore year that killed his draft stock, as he battled injuries, character problems, team chemistry issues, high-turnover rates, and poor shooting percentages. He turned into a team killer. No NBA team wants to draft that guy that can have a negative impact on the club. If Warren gets his head straight, he can be a great NBA scorer. If not, he could be out of the league in 4 years. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MOST UNDERRATED - Ekpe Udoh, PF, Baylor - I have been pushing hard for Udoh as a top pick in this draft, because I love his game. He has never been a big prospect throughout his career, but he has developed a dominant skill set. Defensively, Udoh is a top-notch shot blocker that will continue to swat a high volume of shots in the NBA. He has the size and athleticism to guard any post position. However, his offensive game is far more advanced than many perceive. Udoh can make mid-range jump shots, has some nice post moves, and attacks the basket hard. He can dunk on people, and knows it. He’s not afraid to use his offensive skills now, either. A confident Udoh can be a major impact player in this league. Still, he could fall out of the top 10. Larry Sanders, PF, VCU - Sanders is a big-time athlete and impact defender. He’s not a big name guy, and his game was hardly visible in 3 years at Virginia Commonwealth, but he has the attributes of a big-time NBA contributor. He’s not particularly skilled with the ball or under the basket, but Sanders can use his physical tools to get easy shots, rebound well, fight in the post, and challenge all shots defensively. Guys like these always become great players if they continue to improve their offensive games and overall basketball skills. As a pure athlete, Sanders is the full package. I trust him to improve, as he has done so during all 3 years at VCU. He could somehow be passed over until the later first round, according to some. Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky - Perhaps he’s been overshadowed by all of his college teammates. Bledsoe’s name has not been emerging as a lottery consideration, yet I think he has all the skills of a top player. Bledsoe is a slashing guard that can get to any spot on the floor. He has a strong pull-up jumper and has good stamina and athleticism. Questions remain about his ability to play the point position, and if he’s too small to play the 2. I say, forget about the label and draft the supreme talent. He’ll find a way to be productive on the floor, especially as a high energy bench player. I think he has lottery skills, but he’s looking like a potential late first rounder. Quincy Pondexter, G/F, Washington - Pondexter is a veteran guard that some feel has limited upside. I don’t agree, because he has shown the ability to improve every season in college. He has the size and skills to be a starting wing player in the NBA, but Pondexter’s unorthodox game has been questioned. He’s an efficient scorer with a nice mid-range game, and I just think he can be a great role player in the NBA. He is a high energy wing player as well, and will do the little things to help a team win. Without a true position or specific top quality to his game, he could slip to the very late first or even out of the first round. Jordan Crawford, SG, Xavier - If there’s one thing we learned about this kid last season, it’s that he’s a gamer. Crawford kept his team in every game and nearly single-handedly took them to the Elite 8 before bowing out to Kansas State in the Sweet 16. He had 34 points in that game and hit big shot after big shot for Xavier. He will be a productive NBA scorer with unlimited range. Scouts question the rest of his all-around game. But remember, not every player is drafted to be a multifaceted star. If a player can do 1 thing very well as a fringe first rounder, they’re often the best additions to a good team. Adding Crawford as a bench scoring threat to a contender would be a great move in the late first, despite questions about all his overall skills. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MOST OVERRATED - Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas - I just don’t see enough potential skills in Aldrich. He is a solid defensive player with great fundamentals on both ends of the floor. But he’s not an explosive athlete and can’t create his own shot against top defenders. In the NBA, all post defenders will be on the “great” level compared to his college competition. You like what you get in terms of rebounding, shot challenging, positioning, and footwork, but Aldrich’s total game lacks anything special. He might go as high as 9th, but I don’t think he’s a lottery talent. Damion James, SF/PF, Texas - I thought James’ stock had severely dropped from his disappointing senior season. Yet somehow, James is being considered as a mid first-rounder. Don’t get me wrong; I’m rooting for the guy and think he’s a great energy forward and rebounder. But I don’t see many efficient skills from James. He’s not a particularly good shooter or decision maker, and he often times rushes his moves on offense. He never really developed an efficiency to his game in 4 years at Texas, yet scouts think he will at the next level. I’m not so sure. Daniel Orton, C, Kentucky - The least well-known of the Kentucky five-some, Orton averaged just 3 points and 3 rebounds as a freshman at UK. He’s got much more potential than that, but big men coming out too early have a high failure rate. I think Orton is the classic example of a guy who would improve remarkably with one more year of college, but is coming out too early and might be overdrafted on potential. It’s tough to always tap potential against top NBA competition. Orton does have some toughness and strength inside as a defensive player and smart offensive player, but he lacks explosiveness and scoring ability, and needs to work on several things. Elliot Williams, PG/SG, Memphis - Williams’ stock has been on a rollercoaster ride. At this point, he seems like a lock for the first round, but it will likely be in the 20’s. Scouts seem to be intrigued by the mystery of his untapped potential. A former Duke player, he transferred to Memphis and switched up his game, before passing on working out at the NBA combine in Chicago. I feel like he has more to hide than he does stashed potential, but GM’s are always intrigued by that unknown potential. He’s not a good shooter, tends to overdribble, and isn’t a great passer. He is a great penetrating guard with good size and skills, but might be a tweener. I think there’s too many question marks for Williams to be a solid early 20’s pick. Darrington Hobson, SF, New Mexico - I normally wouldn’t include a guy who could go in the 2nd round as overrated, but Hobson has been a popular name recently. His versatile game and ability to lead the shocking New Mexico team to a top-10 ranking and #3 seed garners chatter, but I see an unpolished overall game with lacking efficiency in many areas. Hobson might be able to fill multiple roles with his size and skills, but I’m not sure if he will ever get the NBA minutes to make an impact. He’s not a good shooter or rebounder for a forward. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SLEEPERS - Gordon Hayward, G/F, Butler - Hayward is now a household name after Butler’s Cinderella run to the NCAA Final in 2010. But this guy has several NBA skills that make him a sleeper to be a real contributor at the next level. He has deep range and a sweet shooting stroke as a 6’9” forward, and he can put the ball on the floor like a guard. He can shoot off the dribble, and finds creative ways to score. He must bulk up, get after it on the defensive end, and improve his rebounding. Defensively, he could be a liability, and must work on improving. Offensively, he has the versatile skills of a useful NBA wing. Paul George, SF, Fresno State - The ultimate sleeper, George has rightfully gained hype as a potential top-10 pick that nobody knows. He has an NBA body, tremendous athleticism, good finishing ability, and NBA range on his shot. He needs to improve his overall efficiency and adapting to NBA half court offenses, as he excelled in transition in college and dominated inferior competition in the WAC. His skill set and athleticism make him a top small forward prospect. Stanley Robinson, SF, Connecticut - The best athlete in this draft, hands down. He has an unreal vertical leap and incredible lift on jump shots and for rebounds. He can be a true asset on set plays at the rim and in the open floor. He is working on getting involved in other areas offensively. He can be an impact help defender with his shot blocking. Overall, I like the idea of developing the skills of the best athlete in the draft. He’ll also throw down many a top-10 dunk highlight for your fans. Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall - Similar to George as an ultimate small-conference sleeper. Whiteside has the upside of Dwight Howard, but potentially flawed game like Patrick O’Bryant. Nobody knows if Whiteside will be able to take his 6’11” frame and massive wingspan and translate it into NBA post moves and legitimate rebounding ability. He only played 1 college season, and it was at Marshall. His untapped potential and tremendous athleticism and skill set for a 7-footer make him an intriguing prospect. Devin Ebanks, SF/PF, West Virginia - Simply outworks opponents. Ebanks has no real touch on his jump shot and does not look smooth in anything he does, but he works hard in the post. He is a fantastic rebounder and finds ways to score the ball. I think he can be one of those constant rotation guys that works hard and finds ways to contribute every night with his myriad of skills, though lacking any one great attribute. Must bulk up to be an asset defensively. Armon Johnson, PG/SG, Nevada - Big-time athlete, explosive guard, very quick and strong. He lacks great skills or form on his jump shot, and it’s unclear whether he is a 1 or 2. Could be a nice player if he improves his offensive skills, given his great athleticism. Terrico White, PG/SG, Ole Miss - Another tremendous athlete, Terrico White is an intriguing sleeper prospect. He has shown the ability to play the point, but he’s not a pass-first player. He can dunk on you and has an effective mid-range game, but must work on his distributing. He is a wonderful individual talent, and must improve his team game to find ways to use his athleticism without the ball. If he finds a role, White has the NBA body to be a big-time contributor that lasts in the league. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - OTHER FIRST ROUNDERS NOT MENTIONED - Xavier Henry, SG, Kansas - Top high school recruit showed off his versatile game in one year at KU. He has an NBA body with several skills, and is a hard worker and great competitor. Likely picked in the teens. Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada - Big guy that can shoot. He has the size to play the 4, but he needs to bulk up tremendously to have a shot at guarding power forwards. He will be a stretch forward that can hit jump shots from anywhere, and has a smooth game off the dribble and creating shots going towards the basket. Lefty with a tough game to defend. Could go late lottery. Avery Bradley, PG, Texas - Was fairly disappointing in 1 season at Texas, but showcased his athleticism and explosive scoring ability during stretches. I’d say he’s properly rated; slim chance of going in the lottery, but teams drafting in the teens and 20’s have to consider his explosiveness at the guard position. Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State - Simply a monster. 7’1”, has the tools to be an impact defender. Shows confidence at the offensive end to score and has a decent mid-range jumper. No real ball skills or passing skills, and still raw as a player. Likely late first rounder for size and upside. Dominique Jones, SG, South Florida - Very strong guard that does all the little things, and does anything to help his team win. Fills up the stat sheet, can score in bunches, and slashes hard to the hoop. Has an NBA body and can create with contact or in traffic. A bit of a tweener in terms of size, and lacks efficiency and smoothness to his game. Lance Stephenson, SG, Cincinnati - Fringe first rounder at this point, scouts have always been afraid of his demeanor and selfishness on the floor. However, in workouts he has been impressive. Hard-working guy, dedicated to improvement, and can do anything on the floor to help a team win. Stephenson is a big, physical guard that can penetrate and score. He is too much of a ball stopper and over-dribbler at this point, but he seems wary of what it takes to make it as a role player in the NBA. ...................................................................................................................................................... Alright, so there you have everything you need to know about almost every potential first round pick of the 2010 NBA Draft. Everyone has a different opinion about draft prospects. Nobody knows for sure how these guys will do at the next level. But if you’re like me, and watch an insane amount of college basketball, then you have a feel for who you like to succeed in the NBA in comparison to others. David Aldrige, TNT and NBA TV analyst, said today on air that “it’s more an art than a science” when judging a player’s potential on and off the court. Different teams have different criteria, and no one attribute will completely swing every team’s views on a player. I’ve tried to give you a scoop of how I like each player based on where they are valued going into tonight’s draft. Enjoy watching the 2010 NBA Draft on ESPN!
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