NBA Finals Preview - 06/03/2010 (100 views)
Written by Evan Jacoby - June 03, 2010

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32 of the 61 NBA Finals championships have been won by either the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics. No other professional sport has had such sheer dominance by two teams. The Canadiens were hockey juggernauts for decades, and the Yankees own baseball history with the most championships of any franchise. But no other sport can claim true ownership of its history like the NBA does with the Lakers and Celtics. 32 out of 61, that’s over half of the championships in its history.

And we’re about to make it 33 for 62.

The 2010 NBA Finals pits the two most dominant teams in NBA history against each other. It’s a star-studded battle of dominant players, ratings-friendly matchup between two huge cities, and hostile rematch of the 2008 Finals.

In basketball, Boston vs. L.A. is always a showdown of epic proportions, and this year will be no different. Despite pushes by several teams that sought after a claim at the top, a Lakers-Celtics finals was once again inevitable.

The Celtics and Lakers have met 11 previous times in the finals, with Boston having a significant edge in the series, 9-2. Last time out, the Celtics rode their “Big 3” and home court advantage to the 2008 NBA Championship over the Lake show. But this time around, the Lakers have home court. They’re the favorites, the defending NBA champions who haven’t lost a game at home in the postseason and continue to ride the Jordan-esque play of Kobe Bryant.

But enough history. It’s time to throw out the past and focus on the single, 7-game series that awaits us. The 2010 NBA Finals starts on Thursday night (June 3rd), at 9:00 PM ET in Los Angeles. Here’s what to look for in this series:

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KEY MATCHUPS:

PIERCE vs. ARTEST - The Lakers won the 2009 NBA Championship over the Magic with Trevor Ariza at small forward. With an opportunity to bring him back, L.A. decided to let him go and take a chance with hotheaded, physical Ron Artest at the 3. With Kobe as the clear go-to-guy, and Gasol/Odom/Bynum the obvious central point of attack, Artest’s responsibility was simple: defend the league’s best small forwards and cause havoc for opponents, while just meshing well offensively. He hasn’t exceeded expectations, but he has done his job incredibly well. Artest frustrated MVP runner-up Kevin Durant in round 1, and has his next most difficult task in this series with Paul Pierce. Pierce was hot in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he was the 2008 Finals MVP last time out. I think this is the most important matchup of the series. Pierce is the focal point of Boston’s attack and the only one on the team that can truly create his own shot on isolation. He was unstoppable in Boston’s series’ against Miami and Orlando, and made it incredibly difficult to defend their offensive schemes when having to account for Rondo’s explosiveness and Pierce’s effectiveness. But, against Cleveland, Pierce had a poor series and was bothered by LeBron James’ physical defense. Artest needs to play physical, get in Pierce’s face off the ball, and contest everything when he has the ball. If Artest fails to shut down Pierce, then the Celtics have a huge advantage to go to all series long. But Artest is the best at what he does, and should be able to frustrate the C’s leading man.

BOSTON’S DEFENSE vs. KOBE - Who will be guarding Kobe Bryant? Nobody is sure, not even Celtics coach Doc Rivers. “Everyone will guard Kobe,” said Rivers. “It’s not just Paul (Pierce). Ray (Allen), Tony (Allen) and Marquise (Daniels), if we can get him healthy in time. (Rajon) Rondo may even (guard Bryant) some.” Clearly, there’s nobody in the league that can check Bryant one-on-one, and expect the Celtics to give Kobe many looks. I expect Ray Allen to spend the most time guarding Bryant. Allen doesn’t have any of the tools to be a shutdown defender, but he is a veteran that gives full effort every time down. He knows Kobe’s game and will give his best shot, while doing the best he can to run Bryant all over the floor on the defensive end if Kobe guards him. Paul Pierce will certainly get opportunities to guard Kobe, but don’t expect too much of that. The Celtics need Pierce on the offensive end, and having to check Bryant while going at Artest is incredibly difficult. Tony Allen is a good defender, but has a lingering back injury and doesn’t have the size to bother Bryant’s jumpshots. I think Boston’s strategy will be to throw many looks at Bryant, keep him on his toes, be ready to help at all times, and try to confuse him as much as possible. Rondo will try to poke at the ball or disrupt passing lanes, Perkins and Garnett will clog the paint when he drives, and Ray Allen will be the primary one-on-one defender. This matchup is crucial to the series, as the Celtics must devise a plan to try to contain Kobe. We’ll see how they go about it, and expect it to be a varying strategy throughout the series.

L.A.’S DEFENSE vs. RONDO - Rajon Rondo is impossible to stay in front of. In the open court, in a half court set, off a pick on the wing, it doesn’t matter. No one man can check Rondo with his combination of speed, quickness, skills, and deception. Nobody is better with ball fakes and full-strung moves. But, all of this just means that it takes a different kind of defense to defend him. He’s not a good outside shooter, so defenses have to find a way to cut off his strengths while forcing him into jumpers. Perhaps the Lakers will choose to body up Rondo with the physical Fisher, who will make him use more strength to make moves and not let him build up steam with room to work. But Fisher can’t stay in front of him, and perhaps L.A. will put Kobe Bryant on Rondo for stretches, trying to cut off his passing and driving lanes with Kobe’s size and length as a defender. Jordan Farmar is an active defender that may get a chance. Whoever it is, the key is for the Lakers to limit Rondo’s attacking style. The Cavaliers were incredibly ineffective on Rondo. Defenders would drift way off of him, trying to force him to shoot from the outside. But instead, this gave Rajon free sight of the entire court and wide open passing lanes. It also gave him room to work and build momentum with drives to the basket. I’m sure Phil Jackson has a master plan devised for shutting him down. I’ll be surprised if Derek Fisher stays on Rondo all game. We’ll see what L.A. has in store, but they must take this matchup seriously and figure out how to limit the explosive attacks of the Celtics point guard.

GASOL vs. GARNETT - Unlike the Kobe or Rondo conundrums, the Gasol-Garnett matchup will be a simple, one-on-one battle all series. Garnett got the best of this matchup in the 2008 series, as Gasol was frustrated and unable to use his crafty, skilled moves inside with the physical Garnett in his path. Gasol averaged just 14.7 points per game in that series. Two years later, Pau is continuing to improve as a player while an older Garnett has regressed a bit and dealt with a major knee injury. But Gasol knows what he’s in for and he’s ready for the challenge that forced him into a tough series last time. "I see a little bit of difference [since the surgery], but he's still very effective and he's still one of their team leaders," says Gasol. "You've got to respect everything that he does and brings to the table. The leadership, the aggressiveness, and he's going to compete no matter what. He's proven that through the injury." This matchup could go either way, and might be a major factor in deciding the series. Gasol is clearly L.A.’s second best player now, while Garnett is the 3rd or 4th most effective Celtic now. If Garnett can stick with Gasol, and match him either numbers-wise or physically, then the Celtics have the advantage. The Lakers, though, are hoping that Pau can use his variety of skills to outplay his opponent on both ends, while creating easy opportunities for teammates.

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X-FACTORS, LAKERS:

LAMAR ODOM - This one is an easy call. Lamar Odom’s middle name should be “The X-Factor.” On any given night, he can go off for 19 points and 19 rebounds, like he did in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. On other nights, he can foul out and shoot 4-for-14 for 10 points and 6 rebounds, like he did in Game 3. He’s completely unpredictable from one game to the next, and his play is often dictated by how aggressive he is to start his night. When Odom comes in the game attacking the rim, moving the ball, and crashing the boards hard, he can be one of the most effective players in all of basketball. In other games, he enters the game with a bad matchup and settles for deep jumpers, unable to use his skills inside or impact the game in any major way. The Lakers are hoping that he comes out aggressive and making plays immediately, while Boston will look to throw looks at him to make him shoot from the outside and not get into a rhythm.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING - The Lakers are known for their ability to shut down opposing three-point shooters, not their knack for making their own. But Los Angeles’s patient, balanced attack can result in good looks from deep if their opponent chooses to focus on shutting down the interior. The Lakers’ stats in the Western Conference Finals were affected by the Suns’ use of a zone defense, but the numbers aren’t skewed in any way. A three-point shot is a three-point shot. And they shot incredibly well in several games against the Suns. Game 1: 8 for 17. Game 2: 9 for 16. Game 6: 10 for 24. These games were easy victories for the Lakers, who added this deep-shot dimension to their attack to be completely unstoppable. However, if the Lakers are unable to hit their open looks from three, it can obviously lead to long rebounds and fast breaks for the Celtics. Here’s what L.A. shot in their 2 losses to the Suns: Game 3: 9 for 32. Game 4: 9 for 28. Poor shooting percentages from three can be a downfall for the Lakers. We’ll see how their shooting from deep affects the series. It could be a major X-factor.

X-FACTORS, CELTICS:

GLEN DAVIS - Big Baby has been an ultimate X-factor for the Celtics. He comes off the bench with unmatched intensity and effort, able to frustrate opponents defensively while also executing in his role in the Boston offense perfectly. If you remember from the 2008 series, Leon Powe came off the bench for the Celtics to have a major impact, including 21 points in one game. Big Baby Davis has the chance to be that guy this year. His ability to stretch the floor while also scrapping inside for boards is a tremendous asset to a second unit. When he’s playing well, Davis is a major factor in the box score and often times is on the floor in crunch time. When he is struggling, either missing shots or being overmatched physically inside, then he can unravel and not have much of an impact. Davis is a hit-or-miss contributor, but he always gives 110% effort. He will take advantage of this opportunity in the NBA Finals to leave it all on the floor. The Lakers will not be friends with Big Baby after this series.

FOUL TROUBLE - By foul trouble, this refers to everything from personal fouls to technical fouls to flagrant fouls. Boston is an incredibly physical team, but that physicality can occasionally be their flaw. Rajon Rondo can be an impactful defender (he led the NBA in steals) with his poking and reaching for steals, but he can also get into foul trouble. That’s what happened in Game 4 in the Conference Finals. Kendrick Perkins is 1 technical foul away from being suspended for a game, and the Celtics cannot afford to lose their big man against the huge front line of the Lakers. Rasheed Wallace is a very physical defender who can be a great asset when he does it well, but can be a true detriment to the team when he is being called for fouls. And then there’s Kevin Garnett, a true madman. His intensity and physicality is a huge part of Boston’s defensive scheme, but if the refs are calling Garnett for fouls early and often, it completely strips Boston of its biggest asset. With all of these guys, flagrant and technical fouls are always in play. The Celtics are not a dirty team, they are just the most physical team in the league. Their effectiveness and dominance often depends on how much physicality they can get away with.

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3 QUICK KEYS FOR A LAKERS WIN:

- PAU GASOL has a great series - He can’t be okay, he can’t be solid, he can’t be 2008 Gasol, and he can’t be good. He must be great, and definitely win his matchup with Garnett. Gasol must be confident, productive, and efficient.

- KOBE BRYANT plays at an MVP level - Let’s be clear. This series is not about Derek Fisher’s timely shots, the Laker bench’s contributions, or Andrew Bynum’s health. This is all about Kobe and Gasol. If Gasol dominates Garnett, and Bryant plays like he did against Phoenix, the Lakers are going to win. That means Kobe must average at least 30 points, 6 assists, and truly dominate play in crunch time.

- DEFENSE limits RONDO/ALLEN - I think Paul Pierce is going to get his, no matter what. Even with Artest on him, Pierce figures out how to score. I think Garnett will do his thing on both ends, with great intensity, but he’s not the most important impact player anymore. Rondo is the key point of emphasis defensively, and Ray Allen is the weapon that can tear the game open. Limit Rondo in the open floor, deny Allen open shots, and the Lakers will be in good shape.

3 QUICK KEYS FOR A CELTICS WIN:

- RAJON RONDO shines brightest - This is Kobe’s stage, and the Lakers are favorites as defending champions with home court. Only one thing can really flip the entire series upside down, and that’s the Celtics point guard. If Rondo dominates in the open floor, constantly attacks the basket to create for others, finishes his shots inside, gets steals on defense, hits open shots and free throws when he needs to, and puts up multiple triple-doubles, the Celtics can be the aggressors and favorites. That’s a lot to ask, but the one-of-a-kind Rondo can do it.

- The BENCH plays consistently well - I said that the Lakers are not relying on their bench at all. But the Celtics, they need a huge input from their second unit. Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, and Rasheed Wallace all have a chance to play major roles in this series. Whether it’s timely shots, change of pace, or key defensive matchups, the Celtic bench will have their shot to make a statement. And, of course, they must outplay the Laker second unit.

- PHYSICALITY reigns supreme - If I were to give a 1-sentence summary of the 2008 Finals it would be this: The Celtics used their defensive strength and intensity to physically dominate the Lakers. L.A. will not be overpowered in this one, but the Celtics still have the ability to impose their will defensively and make it tough for the Lakers to operate on the offensive end. If Boston can use their strength on both ends and get away with physical play, we could see a repeat of 2008.

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PREDICTION:

LAKERS win this series in 7 GAMES

KOBE BRYANT will be Finals MVP

It’s going to be a great series, and I see this going 7 games. Phil Jackson is 47-0 in series when he wins Game 1, but I think Boston can take Game 1 and the Lakers can still win. Both teams will win a road game, and it’s going to be incredibly physical and tight all the way up to a Game 7 in L.A. I think Rajon Rondo goes off for a spectacular series, but nothing is stopping Kobe Bryant from taking home ring number 5. LAKERS in 7.



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