For years now, NBA fans have been well aware of the fact that the entire fate of the league could change drastically during the infamous Summer of 2010. Everyone became warned that several of the NBA’s superstars would be able to opt out of their contracts and become free agents at that time.

LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, and Yao Ming were just some of the names that could become free agents.

Since then, Bryant and Ginobili have signed early extensions with their teams, avoiding free agency and sticking with their hometown squad for the long-term future. However, they are the only 2 big names to do so. Most of the big name superstar free agents are going to be on the open market.

We are now just a few weeks away from this infamous NBA Doomsday, or perhaps NBA Dream Day. July 1st, 2010 could turn into either one for your favorite team.

On July 1st, NBA teams have the opportunity to start talking to free agents. On July 8th, players are officially allowed to start signing contracts. This summer’s free agency class is stacked to the max.

Most years, the free agency period comes and goes without too much of a splash. The biggest names are usually All-Star caliber players, but not superstars, and they sign enormous contracts with teams that have the cap space to splurge to improve their club.

In 2007, Rashard Lewis was the big-name free agent. The Orlando Magic signed him to an outlandish 6-year, $110 million contract. He’s a 2-time All-Star. By the way, this season is Rashard Lewis’s 3rd year of that contract. Lewis is averaging 6.5 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando will be paying him 20 million dollars for each of the next three seasons. Read this paragraph over again if you were stunned; but yes, Orlando is completely screwed with this contract.

In 2008, Andre Iguodala was a top restricted free agent. The Philadelphia 76ers signed him to an insane 6-year, $80 million. Nope, he’s never been an All-Star.

In 2009, Hedo Turkoglu and Ben Gordon were two of the biggest names on the market. The Toronto Raptors signed Hedo to a 5-year, $53 million deal. The Detroit Pistons locked up Gordon to a similar, 5-year, $55 million contract. Neither, by the way, has ever been named an NBA All-Star.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

So those were the most recent NBA free agency stars. But Free Agency 2010 is on a whole ‘nother level. We’re talking about 2-time MVP’s, Gold Medal Olympians, and NBA Finals MVP’s. Basically, the best basketball players on the planet. The stars in this class are in a totally different galaxy compared to Gordon and Iggy. Some of the guys that are going to be free agents this summer include:

LeBRON JAMES, DWYANE WADE, CHRIS BOSH, DIRK NOWITZKI, PAUL PIERCE, JOE JOHNSON, RUDY GAY, YAO MING, CARLOS BOOZER, AMAR'E STOUDEMIRE, DAVID LEE, and RAY ALLEN.

Now, not all of these players will necessarily become free agents. Only Johnson, Boozer, Lee, and Allen are unrestricted free agents that are completely free to sign with any team without any exceptions.

But the rest of the guys are highly likely to join them.

LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Dirk, Pierce, Yao, and Amar’e all have player options for 2010-’11. That means they have the option to stick around for 1 more year with their current teams at a max price (about $17 million for most of them. Pierce’s is $21 million. Insane.). However, only Yao and Pierce are inclined to accept the player option, as the rest of the list are all guys that will guaranteed receive similar max money from another team if they hit the market. These guys also would much rather sign long-term extensions with their current teams, rather than accept the 1-year option. For example, there’s zero chance that LeBron accepts his player option. But, he could sign a 6-year, $125 million extension with the Cavaliers, instead. The same applies for all of these guys with their current teams.

The other option for these guys, if they choose not to accept their player option or a long-term extension with their teams, is to hit the market and become unrestricted free agents, like Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer.

If enough players opt out of their deals, it becomes the true free agency bonanza of multiple superstars that will affect the fate of the NBA for the next 5 years.

Some NBA teams have been strategically planning and plotting their entire franchises around this summer. The Knicks had to trade away their 2009 lottery draft pick, Jordan Hill, just to entice the Houston Rockets to accept Jared Jeffries and his large contract. This enabled the Knicks to shave off millions of dollars for this summer’s free agency push.

The Chicago Bulls used the same strategy, trading away John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas, two very productive players, just to gain money and cap space for this summer’s spending bonanza.

There’s only 8 or 9 teams that, like Chicago and New York, have given themselves enough cap room to sign a max free agent this summer. We’ll get to those teams shortly. Stay with me here.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

So, if Dwyane Wade wants to stay in Miami, he’s going to sign an extension for $21.5 million dollars per year, for as many as 6 years. But if he wants to take his career elsewhere, he has the ability to sign with any team for up to $19.5 million dollars per year, for up to 5 years. Of course, only certain teams have that kind of cash. We’re getting to these teams in a minute.

So basically, the big name free agents like LeBron have 2 choices: The first is to sign an extension with their current teams, which enables them to make the most money (up to 21.5 mill per year), and enables them to be making that cash for the longest time (up to 6 years). The second option is to sign as a max free agent with a willing and able team, which gives them less money (up to 19.5 mill per year) and years (up to 5 years), but barely less.

For an MVP-caliber superstar that wants to win titles in the near future, sacrificing 1 year and a couple million dollars per season is nothing for them in comparison to being able to pick their destination. That is why the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, and Toronto Raptors will be trembling in fear for the next 5 weeks. Miami, at least, has the cap space to sign other free agents even if they lose Wade. If LeBron bolts Cleveland? The Cavs are left with Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao next season.

Rudy Gay is in his own category, as a restricted free agent. That means, any team can sign him to a max deal offer sheet, but the Grizzlies can match any deal if they choose to. It’s unclear whether Memphis wants to shell out 12 million dollars per year for Gay, if a team like Miami or New Jersey would be willing to give him that much.

SO, you got it? Ok, you probably don’t. NBA free agency is quite complicated. Here’s my best attempt at a 1-sentence summary of the potential pending free agency fallout:

*This summer, several of the NBA’s superstars have the option to either continue with their current teams or choose to play elsewhere, and there are only a handful of teams that have the needed cash to sign the top free agents that become available.*

Now, as mentioned before, a max free agent will make about $19.5 million per year. But, they are paid only $16.5 million in the first year of those contracts. That means that a team needs at least $16.5 million of cap room for 2010 to be a factor in the max free agency bonanza.

Listed below are all the NBA teams that have the available cap space ($16.5 million) to sign a player from above to a max deal. Here is the NBA Free Agency 2010 Team Wish List:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

NEW YORK KNICKS - About $35 million of cap room for 2010
The Knicks made several moves in the last two seasons to ensure themselves with enough cap room to sign 2 max free agents this summer. New York’s wish list is long. They can sign 2 players to full max deals. Their dream scenario is to sign LEBRON JAMES or DWYANE WADE, and then bring in AMARE STOUDEMIRE, CHRIS BOSH or DIRK NOWITZKI with him. They are obviously pursuing James endlessly, but if he fails then they will be after Wade. New York has a great chance to land 2 max guys, as the only other players on the roster are Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Toney Douglas. The free agents that come in will be running the show in New York with Mike D’Antoni’s run-and-gun offense. If New York can’t sign JAMES or WADE, then they turn to a big man in the form of BOSH, DIRK, or AMARE. If the Knicks can’t mix and match a player from each group, then they’ll settle for one and likely save their cash for future free agencies. If, somehow, they get none of those 5 players, then they might go after JOE JOHNSON or RUDY GAY, and look to bring back DAVID LEE up front.
1-Sentence Wish: To sign James/Wade and Bosh/Amare/Dirk, at least secure 1 of the 5 if possible, and if not then go after Johnson/Gay while bringing back Lee and saving their cash for next summer.

NEW JERSEY NETS - About $27 million of cap room for 2010
The Nets have tons of cash available, have a new billionaire owner willing to spend any necessary money on team upgrades, have Jay-Z as a minority owner, and are moving to Brooklyn, NY in 2 or 3 years. However, they’re the worst team in the NBA and missed out on the John Wall sweepstakes. They will, though, be bringing in Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins up front to complement Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. We are crossing off LeBron and Wade here, as well as Bosh, Amar’e and Dirk. They’re not going to play in Newark for the next 3 years on a 12-win team. But, New Jersey is an optimal destination for JOE JOHNSON or RUDY GAY, as they will fit in as a star on the wing to mix with the rest of the roster. If New Jersey can sign neither, then CARLOS BOOZER or DAVID LEE will be in play, although they’re not as good fits. After New Jersey secures 1 of these 4 players, they have more room to go after second-tier free agents, or save up for next summer.
1-Sentence Wish: To sign Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay (with Boozer or Lee as backup plans), and then spend additional cash on a second-level free agent like John Salmons, or save their extra money for next year.

MIAMI HEAT - $25 million of space if Wade re-signs for 2010/ $42 mill if he leaves
The Heat are the most interesting team in play. Miami has enough money to re-sign DWYANE WADE to a max deal, and still have room to bring in a max player and a second-level player. Obviously, the number one priority is WADE. If he’s gone, they will likely throw money at JOE JOHNSON. LeBron is not going to Miami in any scenario. After securing Wade or Johnson, they’re going after a big man for max money, either CHRIS BOSH or AMAR’E STOUDEMIRE. If they get one, then they either save up for next year and move on with 2 superstars, or they go for it all and sign a guy like RAY ALLEN or a second-tier guy like Josh Howard or Mike Miller. If they only end up with one guy out of Johnson/Wade/Amar’e/Bosh, then they likely sign one more middle guy, stomach another decent season and save up for Carmelo Anthony in summer 2011.
2-Sentence Wish: To re-sign Dwyane Wade (with Joe Johnson as Plan B) and bring in Amar’e Stoudemire or Chris Bosh, while adding a smaller piece. Plan B is to at least secure 1 of the 4, and then add a second-tier guy and save up for next summer.

CHICAGO BULLS - About $24 million of cap room for 2010
The Bulls are another intriguing scenario, because they have the best young nucleus of any team on this list. They have superstar Derrick Rose, as well as solid pieces Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Kirk Hinrich. Then, they have the available cash to sign a max player and even go after another small piece. I think their goal is to just go after 1 max player, and then save up. So, Chicago is looking to add any max player to their team, in the form of LEBRON, BOSH, WADE, AMARE, or DIRK. If they lock up 1 of those 5, they are a championship contender. If they can’t get 1 of them, then they go after JOE JOHNSON, RUDY GAY, RAY ALLEN, DAVID LEE, or CARLOS BOOZER. If they end up with 1 of these 5, they’re still a contender. As long as the Bulls end up with 1 of the top 10 available guys, they’re in great shape.
1-Sentence Wish: Sign LeBron, Wade, Amar’e, Bosh, or Dirk to a max deal (and become a Championship contender), and if they can’t get one then settle for Johnson, Gay, Boozer, Allen, or Lee (and still become a great contender.)

WASHINGTON WIZARDS - About $24 million of cap room for 2010
Washington has won the John Wall sweepstakes, which is huge for their franchise. Now they have the ability to lure a big-time free agent to play with a franchise point. Obviously, their main target is LEBRON JAMES, but that’s not happening. Bosh and Wade are not coming, either. I think there’s a very slight chance that AMARE STOUDEMIRE or DIRK NOWITZKI could sign the max with Washington, but don’t count on it. The best options here are DAVID LEE, RUDY GAY, or CARLOS BOOZER, and if they can’t get any of them then just hand the reigns to Wall and sign a couple of second-tier pieces that fit.
1-Sentence Wish: Try for Dirk or Amare, with backup plans of Lee, Gay, or Boozer, but be alright with the potential of failing with them and settling for signing 2 second-tier free agents.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - About $22 million of cap room for 2010
The Clippers are the most haunted and unsuccessful franchise in professional sports history. But, they have a good young nucleus and cap room to sign a max free agent. They don’t need a big man, as they have Kaman and Griffin for the next 4 years. But, they’re looking for a star on the wing to join Davis, Gordon, and the two big guys. LeBron and Wade are not coming, but JOE JOHNSON and RUDY GAY are definite options. I don’t expect L.A. to splurge on someone they don’t need this summer, because they already have a good nucleus and could wait for next summer.
1-Sentence Wish: To try for Johnson or Gay, but if unsuccessful then fall back with second-tier free agent fits to complement their team and save for 2011.

SACRAMENTO KINGS - About $21 million of cap room for 2010
Sacramento has the reigning Rookie of the Year (Tyreke Evans), a good young post player in Carl Landry, the #5 pick in the draft (potentially DeMarcus Cousins), and lots of cap room. A big-time free agent isn’t likely to come, but this could be a destination for RUDY GAY, CARLOS BOOZER, or DAVID LEE. They all would be interesting fits. But even if none of them come, then the Kings can sign lesser free agents and build around Tyreke, Landry, and their draft pick.
1-Sentence Wish: To throw some money at Gay, Lee, or Boozer, but be fine with settling for a second-tier guy like Josh Childress, Ronnie Brewer, or Al Harrington.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - About $18 million of cap room for 2010
The Wolves are set up front with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, and at the point with Jonny Flynn and the rights to Ricky Rubio. They also have the 4th pick in the NBA Draft. Wing players are needed, and JOE JOHNSON and RUDY GAY are once again targets for another team, in Minnesota. I think Gay is an option here, and even if they can’t get him then they can add a second-level swingman.
1-Sentence Wish: Try for Gay or Johnson, but settle for a second-level swingman, and focus on getting Ricky Rubio to the States!

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - About $15 million of cap room for 2010
The Thunder don’t have enough money for a max deal, so I shouldn’t include them on this list. But with the super-talented young nucleus of the team, and $15 million to blow, I include them out of intrigue. They have the cash to throw money at BOOZER or LEE, but I expect them to save their cash as insurance for their young guys in the future. Instead, look for them to add a nice second-tier free agent pickup.
1-Sentence Wish: Save their cash, build with their current unit, and pickup a second-level guy like J.J. Redick or a big man like Udonis Haslem.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

My Predictions:

LeBRON JAMES and CHRIS BOSH sign with the New York Knicks, immediately making them championship contenders.

DWYANE WADE resigns, and AMAR’E STOUDEMIRE and RAY ALLEN join him on the Miami Heat, immediately making them championship contenders.

DIRK NOWITZKI and a lesser play like Matt Barnes sign with the Chicago Bulls, combining with Rose/Noah/Deng to become immediate championship contenders.

JOE JOHNSON signs with the New Jersey Nets, giving them a chance to make the playoffs next season, and New Jersey saves up for future years.

RUDY GAY signs with the Minnesota Timberwolves, who surprisingly now have a good-looking future with Flynn, Brewer, Gay, Love, Jefferson, and the rights to Ricky Rubio.

CARLOS BOOZER signs with the Washington Wizards, who gives John Wall a great pick-and-roll option and solid piece to build with down low, and the Wiz could make the playoffs.

DAVID LEE signs with the Sacramento Kings, who appear to be a perfect fit for his game, and gives Tyreke Evans a new best friend and benefactor of many assists, with the potential to contend for the playoffs now.

PAUL PIERCE accepts his player option with the Boston Celtics; YAO MING accepts his with the Houston Rockets.

The Los Angeles Clippers don’t add a big piece, but getting back Blake Griffin is their big addition. They use their cap space to add a veteran wing player like John Salmons.

The Oklahoma City Thunder save their money and build around their young nucleus, but make another good addition by signing 3-point specialist J.J. Redick.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, and Atlanta Hawks all lose a top player from their rosters, completely switching the balance of power in the league. Boston also loses Ray Allen, but keeps Pierce and is in fine shape.

So, there you have it! The 2010 NBA Free Agency Guide. As you can see, it’s all a big mess right now. But the top free agents have been established, and the 9 teams with cap room have come to the forefront. I’ve also given you a rundown of how that came to be, and what the options are for each player and team.

From here, we just need to wait patiently until July 1st and watch it all go down.