(1)Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City Thunder
The Lakers will win if:
-Kobe Bryant plays like Kobe Bryant. The supposed best player in basketball has been in a funk as of late, shooting just 30% from the field in April. He needs to be able to take over games and be the best player on the court at all times. As Kobe goes, generally so do the Lakers.
-Pau Gasol dominates the Thunder’s inferior big men. Gasol is coming off arguably his best season as a pro, in which he averaged 18.3 PPG and an impressive 11.3 RPG. The Spaniard has not always been known as the most physical player, so the big rebounding numbers this season are a good sign for LA. Gasol will be guarded by the duo of Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka, and neither one of these players should have much of a chance if Gasol can get passes deep in the post. Look for Gasol to earn regular double doubles, at least in the first round.
-The Lakers’ role players hit shots. When LA gets scoring exclusively from Bryant and Gasol they are good; When Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, and Derek Fisher chip in they are virtually un-guardable.
-Ron Artest intimidates Kevin Durant defensively. Artest is a shutdown defender, but facing the regular season scoring champion would be a tall task for anybody. If Artest keeps his head on straight and plays Durant physical he may be able to get him out of rhythm.

The Thunder will win if:
- Kevin “Durantula” Durant lives up to that new nickname. Durant is perhaps the most electrifying player in basketball, a cold-blooded assassin that can beat you on the perimeter or penetrate and get to the free throw line. Not only that, but the scoring champion has been facing criticism from Phil Jackson for getting preferential treatment by refs. If he uses that as inspiration and takes out his frustration on LA, watch out. (And if they win, here’s the season catch phrase: “You can’t cage the Durantala”)
- Russell Westbrook does what he’s done all season. Westbrook is arguably the most improved player of 2009, averaging 16.1 PPG to go along with an impressive 8 APG. The former UCLA standout is an incredible athlete and high-flyer, but his ability to find players in transition has set him apart in this season and could be crucial if they are to stun the “Showtime” Lakers.
-They play with an ENORMOUS chip on their shoulder. Oklahoma City needs to act totally disrespected, and take out that frustration on a lackadaisical Los Angeles team. The Thunder need to get inspired, whether that’s from fiery speeches or watching “Hoosiers” before the game (not “Coach Carter” though).

Prediction: Lakers in 6

(2)Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
The Mavericks will win if:
-Dirk Nowitzki shoots well from mid-range and behind the arc. Although he is a 7 footer, Nowitzki plays more like a small forward, meaning that while he won’t be getting many passes into the post he is more than willing to shoot from long range or create turnaround jumpers. Dirk is a perennial All Star and force to be reckoned with, and he will have to lead the way if the Mavs want to reach the Finals for the first time since 2006.
-Jason Kidd continues to find the fountain of youth. Kidd has had a career renaissance this season, being able to shoot his best career percentage from 3 (42.5%) while also using his superb court vision to add 9.1 APG. He is the captain that steers the Mavs’ ship on offense, and if he gets hurt, wears down, or encounters foul trouble they will have a tough time moving the ball. Oh yeah, and he has to cover Tony Parker and George Hill.
-Their new additions continue to gel with their existing talent. Caron Butler, who came over from the crime scene in Washington, is a solid scorer and physical defensive presence that the Mavs desperately needed. Brendan Haywood also joined the team at the deadline, and has added valuable depth to the center position to help out Eric Dampier. If those two can mesh with Dallas’ existing core they could make a considerable run.

The Spurs will win if:
-San Antonio’s point guard tandem wears down Jason Kidd. Both Tony Parker and George Hill were stellar in the regular season, with Hill emerging as one of the NBA’s bright new stars when Parker went down with an injury. Now both are healthy, and together they present a unique problem for any team. Parker is one of the game’s quickest players and can penetrate at will, while Hill is taller, more physical, and a better marksman from downtown. So how do you stop that? That’s certainly the question.
-Tim Duncan can produce consistent double-doubles. Duncan is noticeably aging, and while he averaged a solid 17.9 PPG in the regular season he also had long scoring droughts and streaks of sub-par performances. He will need to be at his best in this series, considering that both Mavericks centers (Dampier and Hayward) are no slouch defensively. The more Duncan scores, the more open looks for Manu Ginobli. Simple as that.
-Their old legs stay fresh. San Antonio’s players are an average of 67 years old (or so it seems), so they will need to maintain their conditioning during the marathon that is the NBA postseason. Parker, Ginobli, Duncan, Jefferson, and McDyess have all seen better days. Youngsters George Hill and DeJaun Blair will have to give San Antonio shots of life off the bench.

Prediction: Mavericks in 6

(3)Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
The Suns will win if:
-They can bring the momentum they gained at the end of the season into the Playoffs. Despite losing big man Robin Lopez for the home stretch the Suns were the hottest team in the NBA in March and April, winning 15 of their last 18 games. Winning in the postseason isn’t always about being the best team; it also has a lot to do with playing your best basketball when it matters. But then again, we’re talking about the Suns. And they’ve never won anything.
-Amare Stoudemire takes advantage of Portland’s injured frontcourt. Somebody upstairs must hate the poor people of Portland, because both of the Blazers’ centers (Pryzbilla and Oden) have sustained major injuries and are out for the playoffs, leaving them very vulnerable in the paint. Mid-season addition Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge will have the task of guarding Stoudemire, but with his explosiveness he should be able to make an impact.
-Steve Nash can find open men and hit threes. He has been the most consistent player in basketball in the last 5 years, and averaged another 11 APG this past season. Nash is the poster boy for the Suns franchise, and if they are finally going to make that next step he needs to be the one to lead the way. Nash should be able to elude the aging Andre Miller and get open looks as well as create for his teammates.

The Trail Blazers will win if:
-They can piece together a lineup that can score and avoid injury. The injury bug has feasted on Portland this season, claiming Joel Pryzbilla, Greg Oden, and most recently and importantly scoring leader Brandon Roy. Rudy Fernandez will need to step in at the SG position, and although he has a great shooting touch he has not produced much in 2009 and has never been asked to carry this much of the load.
-Portland’s role players play up to their competition. Jerryd Bayless could be a key player in this series, because he will have to play significant minutes to spell starter Andre Miller and try to limit Steve Nash’s effectiveness. Juwan Howard, whose rookie season was during the Lincoln administration, is also going to log big minutes playing alongside Marcus Camby, who is no rookie himself. Howard has averaged 22 minutes per game in 2009, but he may even have to extend that time if Camby finds himself in foul trouble for guarding Amare Stoudemire.

Prediction: Suns in 5

(4)Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Utah Jazz
The Nuggets will win if:
-They can focus on basketball. Head coach George Karl was diagnosed with cancer mid way through the season has missed a number of games down the stretch, a circumstance that could affect the way Denver plays in the playoffs. If the Nuggets are dwelling on anything other than basketball they will have little to no chance against a deep, well-rounded Utah team.
-Kenyon Martin plays well after missing significant time with energy. Martin is a key piece of Denver’s team, and when he was out they were missing a lot of toughness on defense and size around the basket that is so valuable in the playoffs. Martin will have to be at full strength if he is going to have success shutting down the equally physical Carlos Boozer.
-The Nuggets can use their home court advantage. It is a well known fact that Utah has one of the loudest home courts in the NBA, so if Denver falters at all at home they could be in for a long offseason.

The Jazz will win if:
-Deron Williams outplays the more experienced Chauncey Billups. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Williams is the best point guard in the NBA right now. But he needs to prove that I’m right in the playoffs. D-Will averaged a double double in the regular season (18.7 PPG and 10.5 APG), and if he can bring that production into this series Utah has a chance. The Jazz rely on Williams to run their offense, so if he stumbles the rest of the team will fall with him.
-They can find a consistent 3rd scorer to take pressure off of Williams and Boozer. Williams and Boozer have nearly identical scoring numbers, but a third player needs to step in this rotation if Utah hopes to outscore a powerful Denver team. Mehmet Okur (13.5 PPG) or Wesley Matthews (9.4 PPG) will most likely be the one to step into this role, considering that Andrei Kirilenko injured his calf and will be missing the first round.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7