(1)Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Chicago Bulls
The Cavaliers will win if:
-Lebron stays healthy and plays like the MVP. There’s really nobody on Chicago’s roster (or any other) that can guard him, and Taj Gibson and Luol Deng will be severely overmatched.
-The Cavs’ role players perform. With Lebron’s ability to pass and set up his teammates, there should be open jumpers all series for the likes of Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Anthony Parker. If open players can hit open shots, the Cavs will have no problem running past the Bulls.
-Mo Williams can limit Derrick Rose’s ability to run in the open court, penetrate, and get easy looks close to the basket. He’s a decent jump shooter, but if they can hold him to 15-20 footers they can certainly live with that production.
The Bulls will win if:
-Hell freezes over.
-Derrick Rose carries his team on his back, and continues to live up to his #1 pick and start to cement his legacy. A monumental upset over the best team (and best player) in the NBA would be the first step towards making D-Rose a Chicago legend.
-Luol Deng and Taj Gibson can hold King James to outside shots. Lebron has been known to force up outside shots, and if Deng and Gibson can get him out of rhythm and prevent him from driving they will have eliminated Cleveland’s greatest weapon. The Bulls will more than settle for Lebron chucking threes.
-Joakim Noah can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, pile up double-doubles, and wear Shaq down by running the court. Shaq was absent during much of the end of the regular season, so his conditioning will be a major question. Conversely, Noah’s strength is his energy and ability to run the court, so if he can stretch Shaq and make him work he can effectively shut the “original Superman” down.
Prediction: Cavs in 5
(2)Orlando Magic vs. (7) Charlotte Bobcats
The Magic will win if:
-Their perimeter players hit threes. The Magic had the most 3-point makes and attempts this season, meaning that they essentially live and die off the three. Rashard Lewis is one of their most talented and streaky players, so if he can go find his shooting touch he becomes very hard to guard. Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, J.J Redick and Mickael Pietrus also need to contribute from long range.
-Dwight Howard can assert himself on the offensive end. When Howard is hitting shots in the paint it opens up kick-out threes for their shooters, and allows their offense to run effectively. This will be a difficult task for “Superman” considering that Charlotte is very deep at the Center position, with Tyson Chandler, Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed, and Desagna Diop all capable of guarding Howard.
The Bobcats will win if:
-Stephen Jackson plays inspired, as he has all season. The veteran, troubled guard averaged 21.1 PPG this past season, and has had little to complain about on a team that allows him to show off his skills.
-Gerald Wallace can outplay Rashard Lewis on both ends of the court. This is one of the Playoff’s more interesting matchup, and if Wallace (who was an All-Star for the first time this season) can be physical with the smaller Lewis he can wear him down. Wallace can score inside as well as on the perimeter, and is also a superb rebounder, averaging 10.0 RPG in ’09-’10.
-Their plethora of big men can be “Superman’s” kryptonite (sorry, couldn’t help it). Charlotte has 4 productive centers, so they will not need to fear foul trouble and thus can play Howard very physically. If they can force him to foul and keep him off the boards Charlotte can immobilize the game’s best center.
Prediction: Magic in 6
(3)Atlanta Hawks vs. (6) Milwaukee Bucks
The Hawks will win if:
-Their plethora of athletes can get out and run in the open court. The Hawks run the fast break better than anyone in the NBA, and when their high-flyers (Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, etc.) are running and gunning they are virtually unbeatable.
-They can play tight man-to-man defense on Milwaukee’s perimeter players. With Andrew Bogut out, John Salmons and Brandon Jennings will be looking to hoist up a lot of jumpers, so if Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford can keep a hand in their face they should be able to keep their effectiveness to a minimum.
The Bucks will win if:
-They can slow down the tempo and play in the half court. The Hawks thrive when they let their athletes make plays, so if Milwaukee can make them adjust to their style they will take Atlanta out of sync. Brandon Jennings (15.5 PPG) and John Salmons (15.4 PPG) have been strong all season, and they’ll need to heat up from long range to quiet the Hawks.
-Grizzled veteran Kurt Thomas and Luc Mbah a Moute (yes, that’s how it’s spelled) can produce in start of All-Star Center Andrew Bogut. Neither player has done much of anything all season, so it will be a tall task to replace Bogut’s scoring and rebounding.
Prediction: Hawks in 6
(4)Boston Celtics vs. (5) Miami Heat
The Celtics will win if:
-They can find the fountain of youth. Boston essentially has a roster of players that peaked in 2005, but if their big three (Pierce, Garnett, Allen) can produce at their potential they can beat anybody on any given night.
-Rajon Rondo is the best player on the court at all times. Rondo was the best point guard in the NBA this season, and can penetrate and get to the basket at will. He also is an excellent defensive player, averaging 2.3 steals per game in the regular season.
-Rasheed Wallace breaks out of his season-long funk. Wallace was not in shape entering the season, and he has never really looked comfortable in Boston. However, if he can hit outside shots and turnaround jumpers he can take advantage of a Miami team that is thin defensively.
The Heat will win if:
-Dwayne Wade plays like he did in the 2006 NBA playoffs. Wade is an electric player, and can drive on almost anybody as well as pull up for perimeter shots. He will need to hit shots if the Heat are going to have a chance, but he’ll also have to cause contact and get to the free throw line. If Wade turns heads in the playoffs this season he’ll better his stock in free agency this summer.
-Jermaine O’Neal, Udonis Haslem, and Michael Beasley can wear down Boston’s aging veterans and dominate the glass. Tradition says that whatever team wins the rebounding battle will take the series. With that said, Miami is younger and more athletic than Boston, and if they can take advantage of that youth they’ll be able to get 2nd and 3rd shots, as well as better looks around the basket.
Prediction: Heat in 7