NBA Draft Stock Watch: Post-NCAA Tournament - 04/09/2010 (160 views)
Written by Evan Jacoby - April 09, 2010

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Now that the NCAA Tournament has come to a close, it's time to take a look at which college players have helped or hurt their stock for the upcoming 2010 NBA Draft.

There's still a pre-draft mini camp and very important pre-draft workouts (similar to the NFL combine) to help scouts and GM's rate players. But all the competitive gameplay is over, and there is much to learn from the NCAA Tournament. The high-pressure competition of the Big Dance is a great time to evaluate how players perform on a big stage.

In the past, certain players have had their stock skyrocket from a deep tournament run, while others have seen themselves drop in the draft because of an early exit in the tourney. But just because one's team was knocked out early in the tournament doesn't mean he didn't improve his stock. 1 player cannot win NCAA Tournament games by himself, so it's important to take all factors in consideration when evaluating a player's success in the Big Dance.

It certainly helps to get to see a player on a Final Four team play in 4 games as compared to a player whose team got bounced in round 1 that we only saw 40 minutes from. Then again, it's especially harmful to a player's stock if he continues to struggle in consecutive big games. There's a lot to consider here.

Here is my post-tournament, draft stock watch, with 5 players rising and 4 players falling:

RISING - These guys performed very well in the NCAA Tournament and see their stocks rising

Jordan Crawford, Sophomore G, Xavier - Crawford put this Xavier team on his back and almost single-handedly led them past Kansas State into the Elite 8. Unfortunately, K-State knocked off his Musketeers in a double-overtime thriller in the Sweet 16. Crawford averaged 29 points per game in his 3 tournament games, including some incredibly tough late-game shots to keep his team in the game. We already knew he was an explosive scorer (20 PPG on the season), but what we learned about Crawford is that he wants to be that big-time player who takes shots at the end of games. He proved to be reliable in the clutch, and a player who steps up his game in dire situations. Watch the game tape from the K-State game to see how tough this kid was at the end of the game. Crawford has declared for the draft, and look for him to sneak into the end of the first round, or be an early second round pick.

Kyle Singler, Junior F, Duke - Singler is the Dukie who saw his stock rise the most in the NCAA’s. Jon Scheyer was fantastic all season, including in the tournament, but his overall draft stock has not changed much. Nolan Smith was great as well, but is not likely to enter the draft this year. But Singler may do so, and with good reason. By leading the Blue Devils to a National Championship, Singler was the ultimate X-factor for the team and looks like his skills will translate well at the next level. He had a terrible shooting day in the Elite 8 (0 for 10), but recovered to become the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player. Singler really can do it all as a combo wing/forward, and he doesn’t command much attention or many shots. He has a smooth offensive game and has confidence in his outside shot, and his passing skills as a big man are very good. He’s a durable, versatile, and smart player who averaged averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists in the Final Four. He has not declared for the draft yet, but is likely a late first rounder if he does.

Gordon Hayward, Sophomore F, Butler - Another player we got to see 6 games from, Hayward led his underdog Butler squad to the NCAA Championship game and came inches away from winning it all for his team. While he struggled at times in the tournament, including a 2 for 11 in the final game, scouts saw what they needed to from Hayward. He has tremendous quickness, dribbling skills, and shooting ability for a 6’9” forward. He defended well, grabbed rebounds at an effective rate, and was a true leader for his team. Carrying your team to the NCAA Finals is quite a boost to your stock. He seems to be a little passive at times, but remember that he’s only 20 years old and still developing as a player. His upside is tremendous, and he will be a mid-to-late first rounder IF he declares for the 2010 NBA Draft.

Ekpe Udoh, Junior F, Baylor - No big man saw his stock rise more than Udoh. The long, athletic big man had an outstanding tournament and is now a surefire first round pick. Udoh blocked 5 shots in Baylor’s final game against Duke, and the Blue Devils have a huge front line. Udoh is going to be a top-notch shot blocker at the next level, and he displayed his offensive game to go along with his defense in this tournament. Udoh attacks the basket strong on the offensive end, but also has developed a consistent jump hook and 15-foot jump shot. He averaged 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the NCAA Tournament. He has actually not declared yet, but is expected to do so. Expect Udoh to be a top 20 pick, and think a less-polished Emeka Okafor.

Jimmer Fredette, Junior G, BYU - Fredette had an amazing season for BYU, then led his team to a first-round W in the tournament before getting bounced by Kansas State. We didn’t get to see a lot of Fredette, but 2 games was enough to confirm scouts’ beliefs that this guy is an NBA player. He had 37 points in the W over Florida, then had 21 in the loss to K-State. Fredette is an outstanding 3-point shooter with unlimited range, and will be a key asset to an NBA team when they leave him to double team star players. He averaged 4 assists in the tournament, and will look to display his PG skills in pre-draft camps. He needed to be a scorer for BYU, so he didn’t play a traditional point guard role for them, and must prove he can do so. But Fredette has all the makings of an early second round pick who can be a productive backup guard. He has not declared for the draft yet, but may do so very soon.

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FALLING - These players disappointed in the NCAA Tournament and see their stocks falling

Scottie Reynolds, Senior G, Villanova - Unfortunately, Scottie ended his amazing Nova career on a sour note. While getting upset in the second round by St. Mary’s, Reynolds fell 11 points short of becoming Nova’s all-time leading scorer. In the NCAA Tournament, Reynolds shot 4 for 26 from the field and showed a lack of judgment on when to take shots. He took a lot of bad shots and looked like he was trying to do too much. I still think he will get drafted, but Scottie must prove he can play more of an intelligent, point guard role instead of a volume shooter. Reynolds would be useful as an explosive scoring backup guard, but his size demands that he learn to become a point guard instead of an off guard at the next level. Look for Reynolds to get drafted somewhere in the second round, but it’s no longer a guarantee.

James Anderson, Junior G, Oklahoma State - Anderson was a second team All-American and is a tremendous scoring guard. He has great size and ability, but Anderson had a terrible performance in the NCAA’s. His team was knocked out in round 1 by a lower-seeded Georgia Tech team, and Anderson was the main reason why. He shot 3 for 12 with 11 points, 3 assists, and 3 turnovers. Anderson looked like he was forcing his shots, and did not seem interested in the result of the game when it ended. The lack of leadership and hustle in a big game was not a good sign for Anderson, but scouts are hoping it was just 1 bad game. He has declared for the draft and will likely be a mid-first rounder, but he was looking like a lottery pick for a very long time.

Sherron Collins, Senior G, Kansas - Collins was expected to lead his team to a National Championship, and instead saw his top-ranked squad get upset in round 2 by Northern Iowa. Collins was 4 for 15 with 4 assists and 5 turnovers against Northern Iowa, and his prospects as an NBA point guard are certainly falling. He is the picture-perfect team leader who plays his heart out, but Collins did not prove to be the most intelligent, clutch player out there like a lead guard needs to be. He forced the issue too much offensively, and has more of a scorer’s mentality than a pass-first guard. An inconsistent long-distance shooter, Collins needs to change that. He can still be a late first or early second round pick if he works out well and improves his shot, but Collins is looking like a draft day afterthought at the moment. He will make an NBA roster, but may not get drafted until the late second round now.

Damion James, Senior F, Texas - If James came out as a sophomore, he would have been a sure lottery pick. But now that he is a graduating senior who led his team to the most disappointing finish of any college team, James may no longer get selected in the first round. His team was bounced in round 1 and he did not play well in the game, shooting 4 for 14 with just 6 rebounds. If Damion James wanted to stick around in the first round, he needed to prove that he was a consistent double-double guy that could take over a game inside. Instead, he proved that he is a wildly inconsistent offensive player and struggles to grab rebounds when his shot is not falling. He still has the skill set of a lottery pick, but James is looking like a late first rounder at best at this point.

I will do one more NBA Draft Stock Watch as we get closer to the draft in June, after the pre-draft workouts and measurements have been conducted.



Comments
Rob Weil
(Monday, April 12 2010, 11:50 PM)

Good list, I think Damion James will go in the early second round.

I also really like Gordan Hayward's NBA potential but would like to see him play one more year in a Butler uniform.


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