We are now 5 days from Selection Sunday (3/14). The NCAA Tournament “bubble” will be the most discussed story in the nation until the bracket is finally announced. Some mid-major and small conference tournaments have completed, sending out automatic bids to schools whose dream it is to reach the Big Dance and try to upset a major team. Other conference tournaments are ending in the next day or two, while the six power conferences are just beginning theirs. Only 34 at-large teams are chosen for the NCAA Tournament after each conference’s tournament winner gets an automatic bid. You can check out ESPN.com or SI.com for extensive lists of each and every team on the bubble. In this Bubble Watch, I showcase 4 teams rising and falling based on their recent performances, as well as 2 teams to watch in the upcoming days and a game of the week. RPI numbers used in this article are an average of a team’s two RPIs on ESPN and SI, which often slightly differ. Here are this week’s movers:

RISING - These teams helped their cause within the last week and are looking good to get a bid.

Notre Dame [BIG EAST, 21-10 (10-8), RPI: 58] - The Fighting Irish have replaced UCONN as the top story of Bubble Watch. UCONN is officially out of the discussion after 4 straight losses, while Notre Dame closed out their season with 4 consecutive wins. Last week, Notre Dame took down Marquette on the road in overtime, which absolutely solidified themselves as an NCAA Tournament team. The Irish are winning close games and proving to the selection committee that they will be as competitive as anyone in a 1-and-done tournament. It would be smart for them to win their first Big East Tournament game against Seton Hall/Providence, but they’re a lock either way in my book after playing so well down the stretch.

Virginia Tech [ACC, 23-7 (10-6), RPI: 51] - Just goes to show how quickly things change in the life of a bubble team. Last week, the Hokies were FALLING and in danger of missing the tournament. This week, they’re my #2 riser and looking like a near lock. Why is that? Because they beat fellow ACC bubble team Georgia Tech on the road to end their season, as big a win as any team had last week. We all expected them to lose that one, but all of a sudden they add a quality road win and 10-6 ACC record to the resume, and as long as they avoid a first-round loss in the ACC tournament, the Hokies are in.

California [PAC 10, 21-9 (13-5), RPI: 20] - We all know the Pac-10 is the worst of the power conferences this year, and most analysts never hesitate to bash them when given the chance. But let’s give it up to the Cal Bears, who closed out their season with a road win over Stanford to win the conference regular season. We know they’re talented and pass the eye test. All of a sudden, they’re in discussion to get in the tournament as an at-large, no matter what happens in the Pac-10 tourney. With an RPI of 20 (!), a solid end-of-the-year finish looks like it’s going to erase memories of the Bears struggling mightily out of the gate this season. I think Cal deserves to be in, but they really need to take care of business in the Pac-10 tournament to convince the rest of the nation who have written them off so many times this season.

Saint Louis [ATLANTIC 10, 20-10 (11-5), RPI: 83] - We all know the A-10 is the surprise conference of the year, with 5 teams all in consideration for an at-large bid. Well, it’s time to add a 6th in the discussion. Nobody has been talking about Saint Louis, but the Billikens finished off their season with a win over fellow bubbler Dayton. At 11-5 and 4th place in the tough A-10, Saint Louis has an opportunity to earn an at-large with a deep run in the conference tournament. With an RPI of 83, and without the kind of exposure all season that their competitors have gotten, it’s tough to imagine this team getting selected right now. But a few more big wins this week and we might be looking at a tournament team. They did enough last week to get in the discussion, and now it’s time to distinguish themselves from the pack.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

FALLING - These teams faltered within the last week and may be left out of the field if the season ended today.

Illinois [BIG TEN, 18-13 (10-8), RPI: 74] - The Fighting Illini were on this list last week, and after 2 more consecutive losses, they are now the most distinguished FALLING team. Illinois lost 5 of 6 to end their season, including a blowout loss at home to Wisconsin to end their season in which they showed no signs of being competitive. Somehow, ESPN’s bracketology still has Illinois in the tournament as of today. I don’t think there’s any chance this team is getting in without a run to the Big 10 tournament finals. They have too many losses in Big 10 play, and just do not have enough big wins to be considered as a solid tournament team. They can prove me wrong with a run in the Big 10 tournament, but I’m pretty confident it’s not going to happen.

Mississippi State [SEC, 21-10 (9-7), RPI: 69] - Here’s another team whose fates changed quickly in the past week. After RISING in last week’s Bubble Watch, the Bulldogs went out and lost to Auburn on the road and got blown out at home by Tennessee. That was more than enough to tab this team as NIT-bound at the moment. They need to at least beat Kentucky or Vanderbilt in the conference tournament to play themselves back in the discussion. Mississippi State has some talented players and I would not want to play them in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, they have played themselves out of the discussion for the time being. Let’s see if they can make a run in the SEC tournament.

Georgia Tech [ACC, 19-11 (7-9), RPI: 44] - What a disappointing season for the Yellow Jackets. This is one of the 15 most talented teams in the country, but they have lost way too many games to feel comfortable about their chances of making the Big Dance. Georgia Tech lost at Clemson and home against Virginia Tech to end their season. When they’re fighting for a spot in the NCAA’s against those 2 teams, losing to both will not help. They’re incredibly talented and another team you do not want to play in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, but the Yellow Jackets need some wins in the ACC Tournament to even qualify. A sub-.500 record in conference play tells the committee that they are not maximizing their potential, and it might be best suited for this team to head to the NIT for postseason play. They must beat UNC and Maryland in the conference tournament to get back in the discussion for the Big Dance.

Dayton [ATLANTIC 10, 19-11 (8-8), RPI: 50] - The Flyers were discussed as an NCAA Tournament for much of the season, and they have the talent to solidify that. But they’ve ended their season on a sour note, losing 5 of their last 7 including the loss to Saint Louis mentioned earlier. It’s hard to imagine Dayton getting selected now, after finishing just .500 in conference play. They have the talent to go out and win the A-10 tournament, but that might be the only way they’re getting into the Big Dance. Like every other team on this list, they have a chance to save themselves this week.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

TEAMS TO WATCH - Look out for these 2 bubble teams in the next few days to see how they do in their big games.

Seton Hall [BIG EAST, 18-11 (9-9), RPI: 55] - Last week, UConn looked like the Big East team that might give the conference an all-time record 9 teams berths into the NCAA Tournament. This week, it’s Seton Hall’s chance. The Pirates have finished .500 in the Big East and can make some noise in the conference tournament. Jeremy Hazell is one of the country’s best scorers, and he must be heroic if the Hall want to make history and become the league’s 9th at-large bid. They must beat Providence tonight, then take down Notre Dame the next day and Pittsburgh on Thursday. You’ve got to earn your way into the Dance if you’re on the bubble, and we’ll see how Seton Hall handles the pressure this week.

Florida [SEC, 20-11 (9-7), RPI: 53] - The Gators have missed the NCAA’s for 2 straight years since they won back-to-back NCAA Championships. Right now, they are squarely on the bubble and have not done much to distinguish themselves. They have traded expected wins and losses all season. But after ending their season with 3 straight losses, they’re currently looking at extending their streak of NIT appearances to 3. Watch out for the Gators this week as they try to distinguish themselves as tournament worthy. They need to beat Auburn and Mississippi State on Thursday and Friday. Then they’ll get a chance to play themselves in with a (likely) game against Vanderbilt. We’ll see if the Gators can get themselves back to the Big Dance.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

BUBBLE WATCH GAME OF THE WEEK - Friday, Washington vs. Arizona State - Before we get to this game, both teams need to take care of business on Thursday. Washington needs to beat Oregon State and Arizona must beat Stanford, and then the two teams meet in the semi-finals of the Pac-10 Tournament. If we get this matchup like expected, then this is the Bubble Watch Game of the Week. The loser will be headed to the NIT, while the winner might lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament, becoming the 2nd team in the Pac-10 to do so after California has likely locked up theirs. For all the discussion during the season about the Pac-10’s mediocrity, they have a chance to showcase themselves in their conference tournament with this game, and the winner might be heading to the Dance.

That wraps up my coverage of Bubble Watch. Everything will work itself out in the upcoming week, concluding with the Selection Show on CBS at 6:00 PM on Sunday evening. Teams have a chance to play their way in or out of the discussion this week during conference tournaments. Many teams will be sweating it out until Sunday. Tune into the Selection Show on Sunday night, then check out my reactions to the committee’s selections.