We are now 2 weeks from Selection Sunday (3/14), and the NCAA Tournament bubble is filling up and contracting with different teams every few days. Only 34 at-large teams are chosen for the NCAA Tournament after each conference’s tournament winner gets an automatic bid. You can check out ESPN.com or SI.com for extensive lists of each and every team on the bubble. These sites, however, do not format their lists to include the top highlight movers of the last few days. In this Bubble Watch, I showcase 4 teams rising and falling based on their recent performances, as well as 2 teams to watch in the upcoming days and a game of the week. RPI numbers used in this article are an average of a team’s two RPIs on ESPN and SI, which often slightly differ. A team’s outlook for making the Big Dance can change with just 1 big win or bad loss. Here are this week’s movers:

RISING - These teams helped their cause within the last week and are looking good to get a bid.

Louisville [BIG EAST, 19-10 (10-6), RPI: 36] - The Cardinals stole a HUGE 2-point road victory over UConn yesterday. Louisville now looks in very good shape and has to be ranked ahead of UConn for bubble consideration, although I think both teams are on track to make it. Louisville has one of the best wins of the season for any team, with a road victory at Syracuse. They slipped in out-of-conference play with a young team, but in conference have proved themselves as a dangerous team that plays an exciting brand of basketball. They certainly pass the eye test and have the talent to compete in the tourney. However, they definitely want to win one of their final 2 games (@Marquette, vs. Syracuse) to guarantee a spot.

Mississippi State [SEC, 21-8 (9-5), RPI: 56] - The Bulldogs took down South Carolina on the road (where Kentucky lost), and have now won 5 of 6. Their only loss in that stretch was a home loss to Kentucky, which was a game they almost won, and probably should have. It looked then as if they were not going to have any big wins to get them into the Dance, but they have not lost since, have a decent profile, and get another shot for a big win at home in their season finale against #13 Tennessee. They have a game-changer in center Jarvis Varnado, who recently became the NCAA’s all-time leader in career blocked shots. He is a defensive force.

Oklahoma State [BIG 12, 20-8 (8-6), RPI: 25] - The Cowboys got a monster win to add to their resume on Saturday, by defeating #1 Kansas at home. They have now beaten both Kansas and K-State (on the road). The Big 12 is undoubtedly this year’s 2nd best conference, and an 8-6 record in it with an RPI of 25 with signature big wins looks like it’s going to add Oklahoma State to the list of Big 12 locks. They could clinch it with a win @Texas A&M, another Big 12 bubble team close to a lock, on Wednesday.

Clemson [ACC, 20-8 (8-6), RPI: 35] - The Tigers simply had to beat Florida State on the road on Sunday, and although it wasn’t it pretty, they got it done. They have the upper hand, now, over Florida State in the bubble discussion. Clemson is a classic bubble team that has no great wins and no terrible losses, are middle of the pack in a power conference, and had its share of non-conference notable wins and losses. For example, they beat a good Butler team on a neutral court, but they lost to Texas A&M and Illinois (at home), both bubble teams. A solid RPI and talented squad should do it for them.

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FALLING - These teams faltered within the last week and may be left out of the field if the season ended today.

Virginia Tech [ACC, 21-7 (8-6), RPI: 52] - The Hokies lost their 3rd game in a row with a tough loss at home to Maryland in double-overtime. Usually this type of loss wouldn’t hurt them so badly, but coming off 2 straight losses it felt like a dagger and a squandered chance for a good resume win. Virginia Tech looked like a very average team when they couldn’t beat Miami or BC on the road. They’re numbers are okay, they have some talent, and guard Malcolm Delaney is a star. But it’s hard to include a team in the tournament that doesn’t have stand-out wins, and they have a completely average profile. I think they must handle business against NC State at home and then beat Georgia Tech on the road in their season finale if they want to have a chance at an at-large bid. A deep ACC Tournament run could save them, as well.

Cincinnati [BIG EAST, 16-12 (7-9), RPI: 58] - The Bearcats had a double digit lead at West Virginia last week, but couldn’t come up with the win. They absolutely needed that game to get back into serious bubble consideration. Instead, they now MUST beat Villanova at home and Georgetown on the road to get to .500 in conference play and have a shot. The problem is, there is little to no chance that they’re going to make those 2 wins happen. It’s a shame they faltered so much in conference play, wasting solid non-conference wins against Vanderbilt and Maryland. Cincinnati is on a path to being the favorites in the NIT.

Illinois [BIG TEN, 18-10 (10-6), RPI: 74] - The Fighting Illini lost at home to Minnesota, and it was a crushing defeat. They now face Ohio State and Wisconsin to close the schedule, and they must win one of the games to even be considered at this point. Illinois does not really pass the eye test, as a team lacking any great players or a plethora of talent. They are solid defensively and have had some nice wins, but it’s not enough right now. Their RPI at 74 is way behind their bubble competitors. Must have a good upcoming week.

Rhode Island [ATLANTIC 10, 20-7 (8-6). RPI: 35] - The Rams suffered an awful loss at St. Bonaventure on Saturday. A loss like that doesn’t seem as bad when it comes at the beginning or middle of the season. But for a bubble team in March? It really hurt them. Rhode Island still has a good RPI and has been in solid shape for most of the year, and faces 2 winnable final games that would put them at 10-6 in the very respectable A-10.

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TEAMS TO WATCH - Look out for these 2 bubble teams in the next few days to see how they do in their big games.

Connecticut [BIG EAST, 17-12 (7-9), RPI: 43] - The Huskies are the best storyline of this year’s bubble watch. UConn has 3 amazing wins against top-10 teams: on a neutral court against then-#1 Texas, home vs. West Virginia, and at Villanova. They have a good RPI. They also obviously pass the eye test, having 3 NBA talents and a team that looks like a Sweet 16 squad when they’re clicking. However, they struggled mightily mid-season and put together a slew of losses that might be too much. They play at Notre Dame on Wednesday and at South Florida on Saturday. Both games will be challenging and might be must-wins for this team. We must watch and see how they play this week before determining their fate.

Notre Dame [BIG EAST, 19-10 (8-8), RPI: 66] - Ok, I know it seems unfair to put 2 teams from the same conference as teams to watch, but there’s a reason for it. The Big East is the country’s best conference again this year, looking to break the record for most NCAA Tournament teams, which currently stands at 8. Notre Dame might be that number 9, and the Fighting Irish are another fascinating story. This team plodded through a mediocre season before losing their best player and All-American candidate Luke Harangody. But since his injury, they have gone on a tear and gotten themselves back in the bubble discussion. They did nothing in the non-conference and their RPI is shaky, but they have a shot in the upcoming week. They play UConn at home and then at Marquette on Saturday. Like UConn’s games, both these games will be tough and are probably must-wins. I don’t think they can survive a split here.

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BUBBLE WATCH GAME OF THE WEEK - Wednesday, Connecticut @ Notre Dame - As we have already highlighted, this is the Bubble Watch game of the week. The loser is essentially eliminated from bubble consideration. The winner of the game must then take care of business in a tough road game on Saturday.

Stay tuned for next week’s Bubble Watch update.