There are five games left in the NFL regular season, which means that the playoff race is starting to heat up and come down to the wire. Today I will look at the AFC playoff picture.

LOCKED IN:

The Indianapolis Colts have already clinched their spot in the playoffs because they will be the AFC South Champions and are at 11-0. They lead the Jaguars by five games right now in the division, which is an insurmountable lead. The Colts will be working toward home field throughout the playoffs and then will be able to rest some of their players before the season ends.

LEADING THE DIVISION BUT NOT A LOCK:

The San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and New England Patriots fall into this category. The Chargers are 8-3 and hold a one game lead in the AFC West over the Denver Broncos. The remaining opponents for the Chargers have a 25-30 record and none of the teams are from the AFC West. The Chargers went 5-1 in the division. The Chargers should be in good shape to win the division or at least grab a wild card spot.

The Bengals are 8-3 and hold a two game lead over the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. They also went a perfect 6-0 in the division with sweeps over the Steelers, Ravens and Browns, so they should take the division unless they collapse. Their remaining opponents have a 28-27 record. Cincinnati should be playoff bound like the Chargers.

The Patriots come in at 7-4 and hold a two game lead over the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East. The Pats remaining foes only have a 24-31 record, so Tom Brady and New England should be able to hold onto the AFC East. It would surprise me if they did not.

HOLDING A WILD CARD SPOT BUT NOT SAFE:

The Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens are the two teams currently holding the AFC Wild Card spots. The Broncos are 7-4, one game up in the wild card standings, and one game behind the Chargers in the division. They began the season 6-0 before losing four straight. Last Thursday, they got back on track with a home win over the Giants. They still have to play the Colts and Eagles but the other three games are against the Raiders and twice against the Chiefs. They should get to 10 wins, which might be enough to keep them in a wild card spot.

The Ravens are 6-5, two games behind the Bengals in the North. Since they dropped both games to Cincinnati they will need to pick up three games in the last five in order to have a shot at the division. That is unlikely, so they need to hold onto a wild card spot. Their remaining opponents only have a 22-33 record. Games against Green Bay and Pittsburgh will be challenges but they should win against the Lions, Bears, and Raiders. That would give them nine wins. A tenth would make them feel better toward locking up a spot.

KNOCKING ON THE PLAYOFF DOOR:

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans still have a chance to prove they belong in. With Baltimore holding the last spot at 6-5 right now, these six teams find themselves out because they are one game back or tied but not holding the tie-break right now.

The Jaguars are 6-5, with no shot at catching the Colts in the division, so they need a wild card spot. The next four weeks will be tough as they play the Texans, Dolphins, Colts, and Patriots. They will need to at least split these games and then take care of business against the Browns in the final week to give them a chance at making it.

The Steelers are 6-5 and in a similar position to what I wrote about the Ravens. They have an easy schedule with their opponents only having a 22-33 record. A game against Baltimore in week 16 could decide either team’s fate one way or the other.

The Dolphins are 5-6, and two games behind the Patriots. Most likely they will need a wild card spot to make the playoffs. All five teams they play will also be fighting for their playoff lives so Miami has a tough road to climb. They play the Patriots, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, and Steelers. I think Miami will come up a little short this year.

The Texans are 5-6 but have an easy schedule remaining. Their opponents have a 23-32 record right now. They will need to beat the Seahawks and Rams to give them seven wins. Then they will need to win at least two of their three games against the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Patriots to give themselves a chance at making it in.

The Jets are 5-6 but their remaining opponents have a 30-25 record. With so many teams in contention for the wild card it will be hard to see the Jets coming out with one of the two spots. However, if they win out they put themselves in contention.

The Titans still have a chance at the playoffs, even after their 0-6 start. Vince Young is 5-0 since moving into the starting lineup and the Titans are flying high. Their remaining opponents have a 29-26 record. This week they take on the Colts. If they can continue their win streak in that game, their confidence will be soaring. Chances are they do not make the playoffs but the door is still open.

DOWN AND PRETTY MUCH OUT:

The Buffalo Bills are 4-7 and the only way they will have a chance to make the playoffs is if they win out. Even then they could be on the outside looking in. This is probably why the biggest news coming out of Buffalo will be who their new coach is for the 2010 campaign.

SIMPLY OUT AND LOOKING TO THE DRAFT:

The Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, and Cleveland Browns will only be playing for pride, or to obtain the highest draft pick they can.