College Football Unbeatens but for How Long? Part 3- 09/30/2009
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Written by Mark Eddinger
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September 30, 2009
The top-five in the AP and USA Today polls are the same and have one thing in common, their unblemished records. When or better yet will any of these five teams lose a game in the regular season? No. 5/5 BOISE STATE (4-0) The Broncos got their biggest test out of the way on the Smurf Turf in week one when they knocked off Oregon 19-8 with tremendous defense. Oregon has since rebounded and played great football the last three weeks, making this win look really good for Boise State. In week two the Broncos shutout Miami (OH) 48-0 and then they went on the road for a WAC road game and beat Fresno State 51-34. Last Saturday they stayed on the road and beat Bowling Green 49-14. This Saturday, Boise State takes on UC Davis and should be 5-0 for their trip to Tulsa the following week. Looking at the remaining schedule, this might be their toughest challenge left. The last seven games are against WAC opponents, who quite frankly are not on Boise State’s level. I say Boise State does not trip up and is undefeated for their regular season. Does their week schedule keep them from the national title game? No. 4/4 LSU (4-0) The Tigers opened with a 31-23 win at Washington, a team that did not win a game in 2008. But then Washington upset USC in week three, making this road win for LSU look stronger than first thought. In week two, LSU dropped SEC foe Vanderbilt 23-9 in Baton Rouge and then beat Louisiana-Lafayette 31-3 at home in week three. Last Saturday they went on the road to face their second SEC test against Mississippi State. The Tigers came away with a 30-26 win, when they stopped the Bulldogs at the goal-line on a fourth down play late in the game. This Saturday, LSU travels to Athens to take on a ranked Georgia team. This will be a tough test. The following week No. 1 Florida heads to LSU for a colossal matchup. I’d expect LSU to drop one of these two games. On Oct. 24 LSU takes on a still undefeated Auburn team at home and then have big road games against Alabama and Mississippi late in the year. I think LSU will lose at least two times, maybe three. No. 3/3 ALABAMA (4-0) The Crimson Tide are rolling and have garnered four first place votes in the AP Poll. Their week one 34-24 win against Virginia Tech at a neutral field looks very strong right now. Two cupcake wins against Florida International and North Texas followed and then this past Saturday they opened SEC play by defeating Arkansas at home 35-7. This Saturday, Alabama travels to Kentucky for what should be a win and then go to Mississippi the following week for their first real test in SEC play. On Oct. 17 they start a three game conference home stand and play against South Carolina and then Tennessee, both of which should be winnable. Then LSU heads to Alabama for a huge matchup. In the last three weeks they have road games at Mississippi State and then rival Auburn. They will be tough road tests. Alabama lucks out and misses Florida and Georgia from the SEC East and for this reason I think will make the SEC title game with an undefeated record just like last season. The game at Mississippi and home against LSU should be their toughest but I expect them to get by. Can they beat Florida (assuming they win the SEC East) in the SEC championship game to remain perfect? Time will tell. No. 2/2 TEXAS (4-0) The Longhorns have one first place vote in the AP and USA Today polls after their first four games. They beat Louisiana-Monroe in Austin week one, 59-20, and then went on the road to Wyoming for a 41-10 win. They opened Big 12 play by avenging their loss to Texas Tech last season with a 34-24 win at home. Last Saturday they ripped UTEP 64-7 in Austin. Colt McCoy looks strong again and Jordan Shipley is averaging nine receptions per game. Texas should be 5-0 after a win against Colorado next Saturday, setting up the Red-River Rivalry game against Oklahoma on Oct. 17. Oklahoma will look to have Sam Bradford 100 percent by this game and try to get revenge for last season’s loss. The following two weeks they will face Big 12 road tests at Missouri and Oklahoma State. Then the last two weeks of the regular season they have a home date with Kansas and travel to Texas A&M. If they finish first in the Big 12 South they would then play another solid team in the Big 12 championship game. I don’t think Texas has been that impressive so far this year and don’t expect them to go undefeated in 2009. I see one loss, either to Oklahoma or at Missouri or Oklahoma State. Will the one loss be enough to keep them from the national title game? The dominos could still fall their way with other big conference teams losing. No1/1 FLORIDA (4-0) The Gators have 55 of the 60 first place votes in the AP Poll and 58 of the 59 in the USA Today Poll. In week one, they destroyed Charleston Southern 62-3 and then beat Troy 56-6. These two wins did nothing to help the Gators. It showed in week three, when a real opponent in Tennessee came into Florida and gave them a battle. The Gators won 23-13. Last Saturday at Kentucky, Florida won 41-7, but Tim Tebow suffered a concussion on a huge hit. Luckily for Florida, they have a bye week this week. They return to action for the biggest game on their schedule, at LSU on Oct. 10. Will Tebow be 100 percent? If so, I think Florida wins, but if he is having some left over symptoms, a lot like Daryll Clark had last season at Iowa after receiving a concussion two weeks earlier, then I think LSU can pull the upset. A game at Mississippi State on Oct. 24 could be a trap game because the following week, Florida plays Georgia in Jacksonville. Florida should not over look their game Nov. 14 at South Carolina and former coach Steve Spurrier either. On Nov. 28, Florida State comes to Gainesville for their annual matchup. This game won’t affect the SEC standings, but is still a tough game. This is tricky, because I think Florida is good enough to be undefeated into the SEC championship game, but I don’t know about Tebow’s injury. If he is not 100 percent for LSU then I think they lose like I already said. I say one loss…either against LSU or in the SEC title game. Will that knock Florida from the national title game? It would be better for them if they lose now than in the SEC championship game for sure, but they aren’t thinking that way and shouldn’t.
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