With one race remaining before NASCAR’s version of the playoffs start, there are only four of the 12 drivers locked in. This is the fewest in any year the Chase has been in place. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin can rest easy at Richmond on Saturday night, as they are in.

Those drivers in fifth through 15th in the point standings cannot rest easy because three of them will not be running for the championship in the 10-race playoff.

Here are the standings from fifth to 12th, with how many points behind fifth they are.

5. Carl Edwards (-)
6. Kasey Kahne (9)
7. Kurt Busch (10)
8. Juan Montoya (17)
9. Ryan Newman (24)
10. Mark Martin (36)
11. Greg Biffle (37)
12. Matt Kenseth (85)

Here are the three drivers’ currently out and how far behind 12th they are.

13. Brian Vickers (20)
14. Kyle Busch (37)
15. David Reutimann (132)

I’m going to take a look at each driver separately over the next three days and their chances of making the 2009 Chase for the Sprint Cup. Today I will look at those fifth through eighth in the standings. This group should make the Chase, unless they have a disastrous race at Richmond on Saturday night.

Carl Edwards:

First let’s look at Carl Edwards, driver of the No. 99 Aflac Ford from the Roush Fenway stable of cars. Last season Edwards won a series high nine races and was Johnson’s toughest competition in the Chase. Now he needs a 24th place finish or better to clinch a spot. He can clinch with a 25th if he leads a lap and a 27th if he leads the most laps.

He finds himself fifth in the point standings, with no wins so far in 2009. His 105 point advantage over Vickers means he should be relatively safe to make it into the Chase, but his engine problems on Sunday at Atlanta really slowed his momentum, landing him with a 37th place finish. The most points any driver could lose to Vickers is 161, if Vickers wins and leads the most laps, and the other driver finishes last and does not lead a lap.

Edwards also is racing with a broken foot, which he suffered last week playing Frisbee with friends. The injury did not seem to affect the way he drove however.

Edwards finished 26th in the spring race at Richmond earlier in the season. He was the last car on the lead lap. As long as Edwards avoids a crash or mechanical problems he should collect enough points to make the Chase.

Kasey Kahne:

Kasey Kahne, driver of the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge from Richard Petty Motorsports, has “The King” thinking championship again. Kahne won Sunday at Atlanta, for his second win of the year and moved up five spots in the standings. He sits 96 points ahead of Vickers heading into Richmond.

Like Edwards, Kahne is in pretty solid shape as far as a Chase berth goes. He needs a 21st place finish or better to clinch. A 23rd would clinch him a spot if he leads a lap and a 24th would be enough if he leads the most laps.

In the spring race, Kahne finished 29th, one lap down. He will need a better effort this time at the ¾ mile track, or he could be the one looking in at the Chase come New Hampshire.

Momentum from his win at Atlanta should be enough for this team to solidify their spot in the Chase.

Kurt Busch:

Kurt Busch is the driver of the No. 2 Miller Light Dodge out of the Penske Racing stable. He is currently seventh in the standings, 95 points ahead of Vickers. He can clinch a birth with a 20th place finish or better. If he leads one lap he can clinch with a 22nd and if he leads the most laps he can make it in with a 24th.

The older of the Busch brothers and former NASCAR Cup Series Champion looked like he would lock into the Chase Sunday at Atlanta until he got lose and spun. He was then hit by Reed Sorenson putting him into the outside wall and landing him a 38th place finish.

Now he needs to avoid a similar fate at Richmond if he wants to run for his second title. He has one win and his 13 top 10’s in 2009 are tied for fourth-best, yet another bad result and he will not be in the Chase.

The good news for Busch is that he finished 12th in the spring race at Richmond. He will gladly take another 12th on Saturday.

Juan Montoya:

The final driver I will look at today is Juan Montoya, driver of the No. 42 Earnhardt-Ganassi Chevrolet. Montoya has been the surprise driver of 2009, easily putting together his best season in the Sprint Cup Series.

His third place finish at Atlanta on Sunday put him in a good spot to make the Chase, as he is 88 points ahead of Vickers. He will clinch a spot in the Chase with an 18th place finish or better. If he leads a lap he can clinch with a 20th and if he leads the most laps a 21st pace effort would put him in the Chase.

Although Montoya is winless, he has 12 top 10’s and has been one of the hottest drivers in the last two months. In the spring race at Richmond he finished 10th. If he duplicates this he will be in the Chase.

If he can avoid a finish outside the top-20 Montoya will make his first Chase for the Nextel Cup in his career.

Tomorrow:

A look at the drivers who are ninth through 12th and their chances of staying inside the Chase cutoff after Richmond.