Michigan State will win if:
-The Spartans dominate in the paint, and out-rebound Butler as they should. This means huge contributions from Draymond Green and Raymar Morgan.
-Durrell Summers continues his hot shooting streak, as he has averaged 17.5 PPG so far in the NCAA tournament. He has been known as a fairly inconsistent shooter throughout his career, and without Kalin Lucas’ scoring he will need to leads the way.
-Korie Lucious effectively handles the ball at the point guard position. He has to pick up the slack because of Lucas’ injury, and has done so, hitting clutch threes against Maryland and Northern Iowa. Not only does he need to shoot, but he also needs to avoid foul trouble, because Michigan State runs a lot of set plays and they need a point guard to get them in and out of their sets.

Butler will win if:
-6’8” big man Matt Howard avoids foul trouble and gives the Bulldogs some stability inside. Butler is undersized, so they will need the 2008 Horizon League Player of the Year to be a force.
-Gordon Hayward hits outside shots. Hayward is Butler’s most talented and dynamic player, and if he can hit threes to accompany his ability to penetrate he will be nearly impossible to guard.
-They can come to grips with the fact that they are playing in the Final Four for the first time in school history, in front of their hometown fans. They will have quite a home court advantage, but that will also add additional pressure not to let down the city of Indianapolis. If the 33 year old head coach Brad Stevens and the rest of the Bulldogs can keep their calm they will have a fighting chance.

West Virginia will win if:
-They continue to hit threes at an overwhelming pace. They shot 10-23 (43.5%) from three-point range against goliath Kentucky, and they will need to be hot from deep again to keep up with Duke’s 3-point barrage.
-They can outrebound Duke. Many of Duke’s opponents have had superior size to the Dukies, but Brian Zoubek, the Plumlee brothers, and Lance Thomas use their toughness and fundamentals to win the battle in the paint. If West Virginia rebounds, they will probably win.
-Da’Sean Butler comes up big in big moments. Butler has been clutch for the Mountaineers all season, and propelled them to the Big East Tournament Championship with big shot after big shot. However, Butler seems to be quite a streaky shooter, so if he repeats his performance against Kentucky (18 pts, 4-8 from beyond the arc) he has the ability to take over a game.
-Joe Mazzulla handles the pressure of playing point guard in the final four. West Virginia’s starting point guard, Darryl “Truck” Bryant, wont play, after breaking his right foot in a practice before the Sweet Sixteen. Mazzulla did more than enough in filling Bryant’s shoes, scoring a season high 17 points. He will need to put up similar numbers on Saturday, as well as guard elusive Duke guard Nolan Smith.

Duke will win if:
-The Big Three shoots well. Duke is a unique team, because they rely almost solely on their three-headed monster (Scheyer, Singler, and Smith) for most of their scoring. Kyle Singler did not make a single field goal against Baylor for the first time in his career, and he will have to find his stroke on Saturday. If Singler does that, Scheyer hits threes, and Nolan Smith penetrates effectively Duke will be firing on all cylinders.
-Duke wins the rebounding battle. Senior 7 footer Brian Zoubek fouled out against Baylor, so he will have to stay on the court for more extended time against West Virginia. The Plumlees and Lance Thomas will also have to pitch in to grab boards away from Mountaineer skyscrapers Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks.
-Hell freezes over. Clearly, I am not rooting for Duke. But obviously I have no say in the matter.