First of all, as Howard Bryant pointed out on espn.com, this is the type of World Series that true baseball fans hope for, as the MLB's two most powerful and well-rounded squads will square off in the October Classic. It's the American League's best team against the National League's best team; the way it should be. The Yankees and Phillies and their respective stadiums are separated by a mere 100 miles on the New Jersey Turnpike, and their fan bases even less, making for some potentially volatile game-watch parties on Halloween Night during game 3.
Second of all, with all the talk of how the Yankees have yet to see such an explosive offense this season and vice versa, I’d like to point out just how crucial the starting pitching will be for each team. Blogs across the web and baseball analyst on many television networks have spent their off days doing position-by-position comparison, but it’s really the starting pitchers whose head-to-head efforts will be most noticeable. After all, the old adage says “Pitching Prevails in the Postseason,” and thus far this year, it’s been significant in helping both teams reach this stage. I’ll take a look at the pitching matchups slated for games one, two and three and then discuss the potential outcomes going forward in the rest of the series.
Game One: C.C. Sabathia versus Cliff Lee. This one has just about everything in it, and should be a splendid battle between two of the game’s true aces. It’s a matchup of two former teammates, now facing off on the biggest stage of their careers, and hoping to set the tone for their respective clubs. Both former Indians have been marvelous this postseason, emerging as clear number one throwers for their teams and shutting down opposing lineups with dominant stuff and impeccable command. Sabathia has been exceptional in starting three times in two series, the third of which was on short rest, and he looked even better in that one. He shut down a good-hitting team in the Angels, and was able to go very deep in each game, protecting what has become a questionable bridge to Mariano Rivera. Lee was just as impressive, also going undefeated while sporting a 0.74 ERA. This battle of close friends, who also happen to own the last two Cy Young trophies, is almost too close to call. I’m going to have to give the slight nod to Sabathia, however, only because of his incredible consistency since early August, while Lee hit a few rough patches at the end of the regular season.
Game Two: A.J. Burnett versus Pedro Martinez. Wow, the sound of that one alone makes me cringe with uncertainty. Burnett is the type of guy who can frustrate hitters for innings on end with his superb stuff, but then suddenly lose control and surrender a big inning. Meanwhile, Pedro is the all-star veteran who has been through just about everything, but hasn’t pitched on this type of stage since his buddy Don Zimmer sat on the Yankees’ bench. Burnett has started three games this postseason, and in the first two was wild but effective…and then, wild and ineffective. He has not yet earned a decision this October, but he has shown he is capable of keeping his team in games by fooling hitters into silly-looking strikeouts. He also walks every other batter and throws countless breaking balls in the dirt, which makes him vulnerable to getting shelled in one innings. This happened in the first inning of game 5 in Anaheim, but he somehow managed to regroup and go into the seventh in that one. Pedro, meanwhile, has tossed just one start since the playoffs began, but he was brilliant, going seven strong innings in what was the Phillies’ only loss to the Dodgers. I’ll have to give the edge Pedro here, as he just seems to be totally relaxed with his new team, and very content with where they have gotten, putting him in the center of it all. Burnett is the ticking time bomb of this World Series. The question is, will it go off?
Game Three: Andy Pettite versus Cole Hamels. The workhouse, stopper extraordinaire Pettite delivered when the Yankees desperately needed him to again, throwing them on his back and carrying them back to the World Series with a fine performance in game 6 of the ALCS. He was also tremendous as the Yanks clinched the ALDS, and solid in game 3 of the ALCS before the Yankees went down in extra innings. The veteran lefty now stands as the winningest pitcher in postseason history, and has seemingly stepped up his game this fall, after nagging back and shoulder pains had his managers worried as the regular season came to a close. Hamels, on the other hand, is either a shell of his former self, or is just having a rough year. The former ace was the story of the Phillies run to the World Series title in 2008, delivering one dazzling outing after another, but has had a mediocre 2009 that has continued in the playoff. He has yet to get through six innings in a start this postseason and has served up more than a few homeruns. I have to give a clear edge to Pettite here, as he has been incredibly reliable when it counts for years. I would be saying something very different had this matchup occurred a year ago.
Beyond the first three games, it is very plausible that the Yankees could go with a three man rotation, meaning Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite could each have to pitch on three days’ rest. The Phillies will likely throw out a fourth starter, namely Joe Blanton, and the return to Lee in game 5.
With all that being said, I believe that the outcome of this series could very well hinge on the starting pitching in game two. Hypothetically, let’s say that Burnett is wild and gets knocked around by Philly’s big bats, and Pedro does enough to get his team a victory. Depending on the outcome of the game one pitching duel, the Phillies could either be looking at 1-1 or a 2-0 lead, heading to their home ballpark with plenty of momentum. But if Burnett is effective long enough and keeps his batters off-balance, the Yankees could eek out another late inning win to potentially go up 2-0. Then, if Pettite tosses another gem, New York could quickly take a 3-0 lead, leaving the Phillies a huge whole to climb out of.
It will certainly be very exciting to watch this all unfold, and no matter what happens, I expect plenty of drama in the form of big plays, big hits and pure playoff pitching.