With less than a month left in the MLB regular season, it is time to take a look at the division and wild card races that are forming.
In the case of division races, it looks like it could be a weak year. Five of the six division leaders right now have a 5.5 game lead or more.
In the AL East the New York Yankees hold a 7.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox and a 14.5 game lead over last year’s AL Pennant winner the Tampa Bay Rays. Boston only plays the Yankees three more times this season and with the way New York has been rolling since the All-Star break it will be tough for Boston to take the division. Tampa Bay is too far behind to make a run at the AL East and is losers of four straight.
The Detroit Tigers hold a seven game lead over the Minnesota Twins and an eight game lead over the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. The Tigers are on a current six game winning streak and 8-2 in their last 10, while the Twins and White Sox have been playing around .500 ball. The division race is not over because the Twins play the Tigers seven more times and the White Sox have six games against the Tigers. This scenario gives both teams a chance to make a run at the division.
The Los Angeles Angels hold the smallest division lead in the AL. They are up 5.5 games over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Seattle sits 10.5 games back. Texas has been a surprise team all season, but will be without All-Star Josh Hamilton for an indefinite amount of time due to a back injury. Texas plays the Angels seven more times, leaving them with a good shot at making ground up head-to-head. Seattle only plays the Angels three times, leaving them too far behind to make a serious run.
Boston holds a three game lead in the AL Wild Card race over Texas. Tampa Bay is seven games back and Seattle is eight back. Texas does not play Boston head-to-head the rest of the way which will make it tougher to gain some ground. The Rays gets Boston three times and will need a sweep if they want to make a serious run. Also, the Red Sox play 16 of their final 26 games against Baltimore, Kansas City, Toronto and Cleveland. With that said the Red Sox should hold on for the Wild Card.
Switching to the National League, the defending World Series Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies, hold a 6.5 game lead over the Florida Marlins and an 8.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. The Phillies are in jeopardy of being swept by Houston today, but still have a sizable lead in the division. Florida has only been playing .500 lately and Atlanta is losers of five straight. Florida plays the Phillies six more times though, including the last three games of the year. The NL East could come down to the final day if the Marlins can make a serious push. Atlanta only has three games left with Philadelphia and needs to turn things around quickly to make a run.
St. Louis holds the biggest division lead, with an 11.5 game advantage over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. With the pitching of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright the Cardinals should have no problem holding onto this lead even if the Cubs get hot. Houston and Milwaukee are 14 games back with almost no shot.
The Los Angels Dodgers have the smallest lead of any division leader and are feeling the most pressure. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Colorado Rockies and 5.5 up on the San Francisco Giants in the NL West. The Giants play the Dodgers six times and with the pitching of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, they are serious contenders to make a run. The Rockies play the Dodgers in the last three games of the season in L.A. and could prove to be the games that help decide who wins the division.
The Wild Card race right now is shaping up to be between the Rockies and Giants, as the Rockies hold a two game lead right now. If one of these two teams passes the Dodgers though, the Dodgers would fall into the Wild Card race. I’d expect the wild Card winner to be one of these three NL West teams. The Marlins are five games back, the Braves are seven back and the Cubs are eight games back. It will take a very strong finish from one of these three teams to leap into the Wild Card lead.